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We take a look at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) trading statistics for the week ending 17 January 2020 and compare the numbers to that of a year ago.
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Our highlight over the last week
We covered the latest business cycle indicators publication from the South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) and the story its telling about the South African economy is not a very good one
Read the full article here
- The composite leading business cycle indicator increased by 0.5% on a month-to-month basis in November 2019. Six of the ten available component time series increased while four decreased. The largest positive contributions to the movement in the composite leading business cycle indicator in November came from an acceleration in the twelve-month percentage change in job advertisement space and an improvement in the BER’s Business Confidence Index. The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
- The composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.5% on a month-to-month basis in October 2019.
- The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by 0.9% on a month-to-month basis in October 2019.
Read the full article here
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JSE Trading Statistics for the week ending 10 January 2020
Number of trades:
Number of trades (2020): 1 391 255
Number of trades (2019): 1 284 384
% change year on year: 8.32%
Volume traded:
Volume traded (2020): 1 659 811 000
Volume of traded (2019): 1 238 277 000
% change year on year: 34.04%
Value of trades:
Value of trades (2020): R94 273 869 000
Value of trades (2019): R81 096 030 000
% change year on year: 16.25%
Foreign purchase/selling:
Net sales/Purchases (2020): -R1 042 762 000
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R3 650 777 000
So year to date (YTD) foreigners have been net seller/buyers:
Net sales/Purchases (2020): -R4.379 billion
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R10.112 billion
So a year ago foreigners were net sellers of SA listed shares to the value of -R10.112 billion for the YTD while this year they have been net sellers to the tune of -R4.379 billion in the year to date (YTD). While the numbers for this is year is a lot better than the previous year the fact is that foreigners remain net sellers of SA listed stocks and they have been for most of 2019, 2018 and 2017.
A clear sign that foreign capital is still leaving South African equities in vast amounts. This while the South African government continues to try and convince investors that South Africa is open for business. But the large scale corruption, poor government service delivery, slow economic growth, restrictive labour laws, worries about property rights, crime and general public disorder in the forms of strikes and looting are keeping potential investors away from South Africa.
JSE total market capitalisation:
Market Cap (2020): R18.058 trillion
Market Cap (2019): R12.879 trillion
% change year on year: 40.2%
So as shown in the JSE total market capitalisation above, the value of the overall market capitalisation of the stocks listed on the JSE has increased significantly over the course of the last 12 months.
See our JSE Calendar tracker for more.
Key issues for the market and South Africa during 2020 will be:
Number of trades (2020): 1 391 255
Number of trades (2019): 1 284 384
% change year on year: 8.32%
Volume traded:
Volume traded (2020): 1 659 811 000
Volume of traded (2019): 1 238 277 000
% change year on year: 34.04%
Value of trades:
Value of trades (2020): R94 273 869 000
Value of trades (2019): R81 096 030 000
% change year on year: 16.25%
Foreign purchase/selling:
Net sales/Purchases (2020): -R1 042 762 000
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R3 650 777 000
So year to date (YTD) foreigners have been net seller/buyers:
Net sales/Purchases (2020): -R4.379 billion
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R10.112 billion
So a year ago foreigners were net sellers of SA listed shares to the value of -R10.112 billion for the YTD while this year they have been net sellers to the tune of -R4.379 billion in the year to date (YTD). While the numbers for this is year is a lot better than the previous year the fact is that foreigners remain net sellers of SA listed stocks and they have been for most of 2019, 2018 and 2017.
A clear sign that foreign capital is still leaving South African equities in vast amounts. This while the South African government continues to try and convince investors that South Africa is open for business. But the large scale corruption, poor government service delivery, slow economic growth, restrictive labour laws, worries about property rights, crime and general public disorder in the forms of strikes and looting are keeping potential investors away from South Africa.
JSE total market capitalisation:
Market Cap (2020): R18.058 trillion
Market Cap (2019): R12.879 trillion
% change year on year: 40.2%
So as shown in the JSE total market capitalisation above, the value of the overall market capitalisation of the stocks listed on the JSE has increased significantly over the course of the last 12 months.
See our JSE Calendar tracker for more.
Key issues for the market and South Africa during 2020 will be:
- Exchange Rate (seems to be see sawing a lot. See our exchange rate page)
- The impact of the 25 bp cut announced by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee towards the end of 2019 and the impact will have on the Rand as well as the South African economy on the medium to long term. Additional interest rate cuts are now being discussed considering the muted inflation numbers published by Statistics South Africa yesterday and discussed earlier in this article
- ESKOM's financial woes and continued loadshedding and weaker than expected tax collections is forcing government to borrow more money, which is negatively affecting the South African exchange rate, and potential credit rating cuts coming for South Africa's government which pushes up the cost of borrowing, and this at a time when government is borrowing more and more
- Expropriation of land without compensation (EWC) has gone quiet in recent months but we are sure the EFF will bring it up again soon to get some airtime
- Potential expansionary monetary policy coming considering the very weak economic growth numbers
- Sluggish economic growth. See our SA GDP page and high levels of unemployment
- Additional tax increases that will likely be announced in the budget speech and how it will affect South African consumers spending patterns and potentially increase inflation levels as taxes were increased by rates higher than inflation. In particular lack of bracket creep relief and higher sin taxes, fuel levies and road accident fund levies will hurt consumers.