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This page will look to present inflation statistics in an interesting and interactive way. The problem with most statistics (interesting as they may be in table format), is the fact that it is not presented in an interactive or interesting way. We hope to change that and get users more interested in the numbers by presenting them in an interesting and interactive way.
As a guide to our inflation heat map, the lighter blue colours indicate a lower level of inflation, and the brighter red the colour, the higher the level of inflation (see the Value Guide Bar bottom right of the graphics for a guide on the colours). |
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16 April 2020: REPO rate forecast of the South African Reserve Bank up to 2022
The image below obtained from the South African Reserve Bank's latest monetary policy committee statements shows the bank's forecast of the REPO rate in South Africa. And we know the REPO rate is the main instrument used to attempt to control inflation in South Africa. The image shows the REPO rate has declined significantly since the start of 2020, and this is due to massive interest rate cuts (2 meetings in which the MPC decided to cut rates by 100 bp each). And this is due to the fact that the Reserve Bank expects inflation to moderate in coming weeks and months, as crude oil prices keeps on declining which will have a moderating effect on South Africa's inflation rate.
With the expectation that inflation will moderate there is room for SARB to provide some relief to consumers and businesses, both of which has been hit hard by the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing 35 day nation wide lockdown in South Africa.
With the expectation that inflation will moderate there is room for SARB to provide some relief to consumers and businesses, both of which has been hit hard by the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing 35 day nation wide lockdown in South Africa.
23 March 2020: February 2020 inflation came in at 4.6%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for February 2020
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in February 2020
The inflation numbers above was released last week Wednesday (18 March 2020) a day before the announcement of the South African Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee. To the shock of most economists and market commentators the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the benchmark REPO rate by 100 basis points from 6.25% to 5.25%. The biggest cut in decades, as the bank looks to keep economic activity in South Africa going following the Coronavirus impact on the country's economy, with stringent measures being put into place in terms of number of people that are allowed to gather, restrictions on the number of people allowed at restaurants, bars, clubs etc.
The question now is whether Fiscal Policy (government spending and taxes) will come to the aid of South African consumers and businesses to shield them against some of the pain being inflicted by Coronavirus. Will payment holidays on debt be announced? Or will there some form of fiscal stimulus for South African consumers and businesses?
- Western Cape: 5.3%
- Limpopo: 4.6%
- Northern Cape: 4.7%
- South Africa: 4.6%
- Gauteng: 4.4%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.3%
- North West: 4.2%
- Mpumalanga: 4.1%
- Free State: 4.1%
- Eastern Cape: 3.9%
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in February 2020
- Pensioners inflation: 4.7%
- Inflation for services: 4.3%
- Inflation for all goods: 4.9%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.6%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 1.5%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 6.2%
The inflation numbers above was released last week Wednesday (18 March 2020) a day before the announcement of the South African Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee. To the shock of most economists and market commentators the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the benchmark REPO rate by 100 basis points from 6.25% to 5.25%. The biggest cut in decades, as the bank looks to keep economic activity in South Africa going following the Coronavirus impact on the country's economy, with stringent measures being put into place in terms of number of people that are allowed to gather, restrictions on the number of people allowed at restaurants, bars, clubs etc.
The question now is whether Fiscal Policy (government spending and taxes) will come to the aid of South African consumers and businesses to shield them against some of the pain being inflicted by Coronavirus. Will payment holidays on debt be announced? Or will there some form of fiscal stimulus for South African consumers and businesses?
19 February 2020: January 2020 inflation came in at 4.5%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for January 2020
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in January 2020
Finally after suggesting for a few months that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) should cut interest rates in South Africa they obliged by cutting rates a mere 25 basis points. But it is at least a cut but hardly enough to get the economy of South Africa going get millions of South Africans out of their debt trap.
The South African Reserve Bank should not be worried about the increasing inflation at this point in time as its mostly driven by strong inflation in the Western Cape and strong inflation in non-durable goods such as food. So the underlying inflation is not being driven by increased consumer spending on nice to have such as clothes, furniture, electronics etc, as the inflation of semi-durable and durable goods are still very subdued.
- Western Cape: 5.1%
- Limpopo: 4.7%
- South Africa: 4.5%
- Northern Cape: 4.4%
- Gauteng: 4.4%
- Mpumalanga: 4.2%
- North West: 4.1%
- Free State: 4.0%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.0%
- Eastern Cape: 4.0%
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in January 2020
- Pensioners inflation: 4.6%
- Inflation for services: 4.0%
- Inflation for all goods: 4.9%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.3%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 1.8%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 6.1%
Finally after suggesting for a few months that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) should cut interest rates in South Africa they obliged by cutting rates a mere 25 basis points. But it is at least a cut but hardly enough to get the economy of South Africa going get millions of South Africans out of their debt trap.
The South African Reserve Bank should not be worried about the increasing inflation at this point in time as its mostly driven by strong inflation in the Western Cape and strong inflation in non-durable goods such as food. So the underlying inflation is not being driven by increased consumer spending on nice to have such as clothes, furniture, electronics etc, as the inflation of semi-durable and durable goods are still very subdued.
23 January 2020: December 2019 inflation came in at 4%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for December 2019.
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in December 2019
Finally after suggesting for a few months that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) should cut interest rates in South Africa they obliged by cutting rates a mere 25 basis points. But it is at least a cut but hardly enough to get the economy of South Africa going or get millions of South Africans out of their debt trap
- Limpopo: 4.7%
- Western Cape: 4.4%
- South Africa: 4.0%
- Northern Cape: 4.0%
- Mpumalanga: 3.9%
- Gauteng: 3.9%
- North West: 3.9%
- Free State: 3.8%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.7%
- Eastern Cape: 3.7%
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in December 2019
- Pensioners inflation: 4.1%
- Inflation for services: 4.1%
- Inflation for all goods: 3.9%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.5%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 2.0%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 4.6%
Finally after suggesting for a few months that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) should cut interest rates in South Africa they obliged by cutting rates a mere 25 basis points. But it is at least a cut but hardly enough to get the economy of South Africa going or get millions of South Africans out of their debt trap
11 December 2019: November 2019 inflation came in at 3.6%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for November 2019.
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in November 2019
And as we said last month we will repeat it for this month following the release of the latest inflation numbers for November 2019. Based on the release of the latest inflation numbers in South Africa we believe that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) t will find it VERY hard to justify not cutting interest rates at their next MPC meeting considering the subdued inflation numbers and the significant lack of growth in the South African economy.
- Limpopo: 4.1%
- Western Cape: 4.1%
- Free State: 3.6%
- South Africa: 3.6%
- Northern Cape: 3.5%
- Mpumalanga: 3.5%
- Gauteng: 3.4%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.4%
- North West: 3.3%
- Eastern Cape: 3.2%
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in November 2019
- Pensioners inflation: 3.7%
- Inflation for services: 4.2%
- Inflation for all goods: 2.8%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.4%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 1.9%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 3.1%
And as we said last month we will repeat it for this month following the release of the latest inflation numbers for November 2019. Based on the release of the latest inflation numbers in South Africa we believe that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) t will find it VERY hard to justify not cutting interest rates at their next MPC meeting considering the subdued inflation numbers and the significant lack of growth in the South African economy.
20 November 2019: Inflation at lowest level in 8 years
The image below obtained from Statistics South Africa shows that the inflation rate released earlier today for October 2019 which came in at 3.7% was the lowest inflation rate recorded in the last 8 years. We continue to believe that this is more than enough ammunition for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) to cut interest rates tomorrow 21 November 2019 to assist struggling consumers as well as giving the ailing South African economy a welcome boost.
South Africa's inflation the lowest its been in 8 years
20 November 2019: October 2019 inflation rate came in at 3.7%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for October 2019.
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in October 2019
Based on the release of the latest inflation numbers in South Africa we believe that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) that is meeting right now to discuss the direction of South Africa's monetary policy and will make an interest rat announcement tomorrow 21 November 2019, will find it VERY hard to justify not cutting interest rates considering the subdued inflation numbers and the significant lack of growth in the South African economy.
- Limpopo: 4.5%
- Western Cape: 4.3%
- Northern Cape: 3.8%
- South Africa: 3.7%
- Free State: 3.7%
- Gauteng: 3.6%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.6%
- Mpumalanga: 3.3%
- North West: 3.2%
- Eastern Cape: 3.1%
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in October 2019
- Pensioners inflation: 3.7%
- Inflation for services: 4.2%
- Inflation for all goods: 3.1%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.2%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 2.0%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 3.5%
Based on the release of the latest inflation numbers in South Africa we believe that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) that is meeting right now to discuss the direction of South Africa's monetary policy and will make an interest rat announcement tomorrow 21 November 2019, will find it VERY hard to justify not cutting interest rates considering the subdued inflation numbers and the significant lack of growth in the South African economy.
23 October 2019: September 2019 inflation rate came in at 4.1%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for September 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of Limpopo is the highest of any province. The first time in 30 months its not been the Western Cape
So for the last 30 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces, and this month its the first time in 31 months that another province recorded an inflation rate higher than that of the Western Cape. Western Cape's persistently higher inflation rate has been attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in September 2019
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa. So the question is what excuse will the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) come up with now not to cut interest rates at their next MPC meeting?
- Limpopo: 4.8%
- Western Cape: 4.6%
- Northern Cape: 4.1%
- South Africa: 4.1%
- Free State: 4.0%
- Gauteng: 4.0%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.0%
- Mpumalanga: 3.7%
- Eastern Cape: 3.7%
- North West: 3.6%
So for the last 30 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces, and this month its the first time in 31 months that another province recorded an inflation rate higher than that of the Western Cape. Western Cape's persistently higher inflation rate has been attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
Other noteworthy inflation numbers for South Africa in September 2019
- Pensioners inflation: 4.2%
- Inflation for services: 4.2%
- Inflation for all goods: 4.0%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.4%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 2.1%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 4.5%
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa. So the question is what excuse will the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) come up with now not to cut interest rates at their next MPC meeting?
18 September 2019: August 2019 inflation rate came in at 4.3%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for August 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the30th month in a row
So for the last 30 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa. With the SARB monetary policy committee meeting today and tomorrow to decide on South Africa's interest rates one wonders if another interest rate cut is coming considering the inflation rate is still well within the 3% and 6% target.
- Western Cape: 4.9%
- Limpopo: 4.7%
- Northern Cape: 4.6%
- Mpumalanga: 4.4%
- South Africa: 4.3%
- Free State: 4.2%
- Gauteng: 4.1%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.1%
- Eastern Cape: 4.0%
- North West: 3.8%
So for the last 30 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Pensioners inflation: 4.4%
- Inflation for services: 4.7%
- Inflation for all goods: 3.9%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.6%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 2.0%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 4.5%
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa. With the SARB monetary policy committee meeting today and tomorrow to decide on South Africa's interest rates one wonders if another interest rate cut is coming considering the inflation rate is still well within the 3% and 6% target.
20 August 2019: July 2019 inflation rate came in at 4.0%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for July 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the 29th month in a row
So for the last 29 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa.
- Western Cape: 4.8%
- Limpopo: 4.7%
- Northern Cape: 4.5%
- Mpumalanga: 4.1%
- South Africa: 4.0%
- Free State: 3.9%
- Gauteng: 3.8%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.7%
- Eastern Cape: 3.8%
- North West: 3.6%
So for the last 29 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Pensioners inflation: 4.1%
- Inflation for services: 4.7%
- Inflation for all goods: 3.4%
- Inflation for durable goods: 2.4%
- Inflation for semi-durable goods: 1.7%
- Inflation for non durable goods: 4.0%
The extremely low rates of inflation for durable and semi-durable goods (all goods expected to last between a year and 5 years such as appliances, and clothing and footwear etc) shows that retailers are struggling to sell these type of goods thus very little price increases are levied on such goods else retailers wont be able to move the stock as consumers wont buy it. It is a manifestation of the weak economic conditions and struggling consumer demand in South Africa.
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here24 July 2019: June 2019 inflation rate came in at: 4.5%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for June 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the 28th month in a row
So for the last 28 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Western Cape: 5.3%
- Limpopo: 4.7%
- South Africa: 4.5%
- Mpumalanga: 4.3%
- Gauteng: 4.3%
- Northern Cape: 4.3%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4%
- Free State: 3.9%
- Eastern Cape: 3.9%
- North West: 3.9%
So for the last 28 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Pensioners inflation:4.6%
- Inflation for services: 4.8%
- Inflation for goods: 4.5%
27 June 2019: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) view on South Africa's current inflation
The image below is an extract from the latest quarterly bulletin published by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) at it makes specific reference to underlying goods inflation. Essentially this is the underlying rate of inflation of goods being bought by consumers when the volatile items such as food, alcoholic beverage, fuel and electricity is removed from the inflation numbers. The aim of calculating underlying goods inflation is to determine whether the general price level of goods are increasing without it being influenced by more volatile items such as petrol prices or food prices.
With the underlying goods inflation hardly being in the 3% lower target of the South African Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee (SARB MPC), we cannot see how SARB can get away with keeping interest rates at its current levels, considering the weak economic growth numbers that was published recently for the 1st quarter of 2019 for South Africa. It is clear that underlying inflation is benign and should not worry the MPC at all as it's hardly at the lower end of their inflation target. We have long held the view that SARB needs to reduce interest rates in South Africa as it is far to high, and this just serves to confirm that underlying inflation is muted.
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here19 June 2019: May 2019 inflation came in at 4.5%
The summary below shows the inflation rates per province in South Africa for May 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the 28th month in a row
So for the last 28 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Western Cape: 5.4%
- Free State: 4.4%
- Limpopo: 5.0%
- South Africa: 4.5%
- Mpumalanga: 4.4%
- Gauteng: 4.4%
- Northern Cape: 4.2%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4%
- Eastern Cape: 3.9%
- North West: 3.8%
So for the last 28 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Pensioners inflation:4.6%
- Inflation for services: 4.6%
- Inflation for goods: 4.2%
22 May 2019: April 2019 inflation came in at: 4.4%
So Statistics South Africa released the latest inflation numbers for April 2019 earlier today. Below the summary of the inflation rate per province for April 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the 27th month in a row
So for the last 27 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
Significant contributors to the latest inflation number of 4.4% includes:
The article below is as published on Statistics South Africa's website and it takes a look at the price movement of meat prices
Article starts
Annual consumer inflation softened to 4,4% in April 2019 after hitting a three-month high of 4,5% in March 2019. While food inflation remains quite stable, rising petrol prices continue to place pressure on consumers. Inflation has remained within the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) target range of 3–6% for two years (since March 2017).
- Western Cape: 5.2%
- Free State: 4.5%
- Limpopo: 4.4%
- South Africa: 4.4%
- Mpumalanga: 4.3%
- Northern Cape: 4.2%
- Gauteng: 4.2%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.9%
- North West: 3.9%
- Eastern Cape: 3.8%
So for the last 27 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
Significant contributors to the latest inflation number of 4.4% includes:
- Alcoholic beverages and tobacco contributed 0,3 of a percentage point in April 2019. The index increased by 5,7% year-on-year.
- Transport contributed 1,1 percentage points in April 2019. The index increased by 7,4% year-on-year.
The article below is as published on Statistics South Africa's website and it takes a look at the price movement of meat prices
Article starts
Annual consumer inflation softened to 4,4% in April 2019 after hitting a three-month high of 4,5% in March 2019. While food inflation remains quite stable, rising petrol prices continue to place pressure on consumers. Inflation has remained within the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) target range of 3–6% for two years (since March 2017).
The fuel price index saw a rise of 7,6% in April from March, on the back of a hefty price hike. The 7,6% rise is the biggest monthly jump in fuel prices since April 2015 when the fuel index climbed by 14,3%. The price of inland 95-octane petrol increased by R1,31 per litre in April 2019 and diesel (wholesale) by 82c.1 Revised fuel and Road Accident Fund (RAF) levies also came into effect in April, contributing to these increases.
All eyes will be on fuel prices in June when government is expected to implement the carbon tax. Annual food inflation in April continued to be moderate at 2,3%. However, several foods had higher inflation than the overall food rate: vegetables (10,1%); fruit (6,4%); bread and cereals (6,1%); fish (4,9%); and sugar, sweets & desserts (5,2%). Meat prices continued their downward trend, registering an overall annual decline of 1,2% in April. Stewing beef was 5,4% cheaper than a year ago. The average price of beef steak has fallen by 4,8% (see image below)
All eyes will be on fuel prices in June when government is expected to implement the carbon tax. Annual food inflation in April continued to be moderate at 2,3%. However, several foods had higher inflation than the overall food rate: vegetables (10,1%); fruit (6,4%); bread and cereals (6,1%); fish (4,9%); and sugar, sweets & desserts (5,2%). Meat prices continued their downward trend, registering an overall annual decline of 1,2% in April. Stewing beef was 5,4% cheaper than a year ago. The average price of beef steak has fallen by 4,8% (see image below)
Alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages have seen strong price increases over the past 12 months. Cold beverage prices have increased by 9,4% since April 2018. Wine prices climbed by 7,9% over the same period.
Article Ends
Article Ends
17 April 2019: March 2019 inflation came in at : 4.5%
So Statistics South Africa released the latest inflation numbers for March 2019 earlier today. Below the summary of the inflation rate per province for March 2019. And surprise surprise the inflation rate of the Western Cape was the highest once again. For the 26th month in a row
So for the last 26 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
South Africa's inflation rate will in all likelihood increase slightly in coming months as additional inflation pressures starts to filter through to end consumers. These include increased taxes on fuel, increased taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, a weaker exchange rate and stronger international oil prices which are pushing up fuel prices again. However all the current inflation drivers are due to factors outside of consumers control and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to take this into account when they meet again when setting the REPO rate which in turn affects the prime lending rate than banks borrow money to consumers at. While we said the aforementioned last month, the price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco has already increased sharply, and will increase even more for the month of April once prices are collected which includes the higher "sin taxes". Retailers of liquor and tobacco usually increase prices right after the budget speech and before the "sin tax" increases, then increase prices again in April with "sin taxes" and a bit more so that they can make more money. So we expect alcoholic beverages and tobacco to be one of the main drivers of inflation again next month. Below the main contributors to inflation in South Africa for March 2019.
- Western Cape: 5.5%
- Limpopo: 4.8%
- Free State: 4.6%
- Mpumalanga: 4.4%
- Northern Cape: 4.4%
- South Africa: 4.4%
- Gauteng: 4.3%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.1%
- Eastern Cape: 4%
- North West: 3.8%
So for the last 26 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
South Africa's inflation rate will in all likelihood increase slightly in coming months as additional inflation pressures starts to filter through to end consumers. These include increased taxes on fuel, increased taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, a weaker exchange rate and stronger international oil prices which are pushing up fuel prices again. However all the current inflation drivers are due to factors outside of consumers control and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to take this into account when they meet again when setting the REPO rate which in turn affects the prime lending rate than banks borrow money to consumers at. While we said the aforementioned last month, the price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco has already increased sharply, and will increase even more for the month of April once prices are collected which includes the higher "sin taxes". Retailers of liquor and tobacco usually increase prices right after the budget speech and before the "sin tax" increases, then increase prices again in April with "sin taxes" and a bit more so that they can make more money. So we expect alcoholic beverages and tobacco to be one of the main drivers of inflation again next month. Below the main contributors to inflation in South Africa for March 2019.
- Alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased from 0,3 of a percentage point in February 2019 to 0,4 of a percentage point in March 2019. The index increased by 6,4% year-on-year.
- Housing and utilities decreased from 1,3 percentage points in February 2019 to 1,1 percentage points in March 2019. The index increased by 4,5% year-on-year.
- Transport increased from 0,5 of a percentage point in February 2019 to 0,9 of a percentage point in March 2019. The index increased by 6,4% year-on-year
20 March 2019: February 2019 inflation came in at : 4.1%
The map below shows the inflation rate per province per month since that start of 2018. And we will bet that once again the Western Cape has the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's 9 provinces. Note the map will only be updated after 11:30
The summary below show the inflation rate per province for the months of February 2019:
So for the last 25 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
South Africa's inflation rate will in all likelihood increase slightly in coming months as additional inflation pressures starts to filter through to end consumers. These include increased taxes on fuel, increased taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, a weaker exchange rate and stronger international oil prices which are pushing up fuel prices again. However all the current inflation drivers are due to factors outside of consumers control and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to take this into account when they meet again when setting the REPO rate which in turn affects the prime lending rate than banks borrow money to consumers at.
Interestingly inflation for all goods came in at 3% while inflation for services came in at 5.2%. So its clear inflation on goods consumers are buying is far less than the inflation rate of services consumers are using.
- Western Cape: 4.7%
- Gauteng: 4.2%
- Free State: 4.1%
- South Africa: 4.1%
- Mpumalanga: 4.0%
- Eastern Cape: 4%
- Northern Cape: 3.7%
- Limpopo: 3.7%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.6%
- North West: 3.3%
So for the last 25 months, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
South Africa's inflation rate will in all likelihood increase slightly in coming months as additional inflation pressures starts to filter through to end consumers. These include increased taxes on fuel, increased taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, a weaker exchange rate and stronger international oil prices which are pushing up fuel prices again. However all the current inflation drivers are due to factors outside of consumers control and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and its monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to take this into account when they meet again when setting the REPO rate which in turn affects the prime lending rate than banks borrow money to consumers at.
Interestingly inflation for all goods came in at 3% while inflation for services came in at 5.2%. So its clear inflation on goods consumers are buying is far less than the inflation rate of services consumers are using.
20 February 2019: January 2019 inflation at 4%
The map below shows the inflation rate per province per month since that start of 2018. Once again the Western Cape has the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's 9 provinces.
The summary below shows the January 2019 inflation rate per province as well as the headline number for South Africa as a whole
So for the last two years, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
- Western Cape: 4.6%
- Gauteng: 4.1%
- Free State: 4.1%
- South Africa: 4%
- Mpumalanga: 3.7%
- Northern Cape: 3.7%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.6%
- Eastern Cape: 3.6%
- Limpopo: 3.5%
- North West: 3.3%
So for the last two years, the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of South Africa's provinces. And it is attributed to the growth rate in their property rent. See more regarding this in our Cape Town Property Bubble article.
23 January 2019: December 2018 inflation at 4.5%
The three biggest contributors to inflation in December 2018 was:
The provincial inflation rates for December 2018 is as follows
With inflation being driven down largely by the massive decline in the fuel price since the end of November, it is now in the middle of SARB's inflation target range. We still believe the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy commitee (MPC) should never have raised interest rates in November 2018.
And the Western Cape has the highest inflation rate once again, making it the 23rd consecutive month that the Western Cape had the highest inflation rate of any of the provinces in South Africa
- Transport: 0.9 (or 20% of the total CPI in December 2018)
- Housing and utilities: 1.3 (or 28.8% of the total CPI in December 2018)
- Miscellaneous goods and services with 0.9 (or 20% of the total CPI in December 2018). Miscellaneous goods and services contains all the various insurance types such as household, vehicle insurance, medical aids etc.
The provincial inflation rates for December 2018 is as follows
- Western Cape: 5.2%
- Gauteng: 4.6%
- South Africa's overall headline inflation: 4.5%
- Free State: 4.4%
- Mpumalanga: 4.0%
- Northern Cape: 4.0%
- Eastern Cape: 3.9%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.8%
- Limpopo:3.6%
- North-West: 3.5%
With inflation being driven down largely by the massive decline in the fuel price since the end of November, it is now in the middle of SARB's inflation target range. We still believe the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy commitee (MPC) should never have raised interest rates in November 2018.
And the Western Cape has the highest inflation rate once again, making it the 23rd consecutive month that the Western Cape had the highest inflation rate of any of the provinces in South Africa
13 December 2018: November 2018 inflation at 5.2%
The three biggest contributors to inflation in November 2018 was:
The three main categories mentioned above contributed over 70% of the total inflation number for South Africa during November 2018. Taking a quick look at the inflation rates of the various provinces of South Africa:
For the last 22 months the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of the provinces in South Africa, and according to Statistics South Africa it is due to the high rental increases in the provinces. As rent is used as a proxy to estimate the cost of housing in the CPI basket. But with rental increases being heavily inflated in South Africa we believe the higher than usual inflation in the Western Cape is artificial in nature, but the worry is the fact that the Western Cape is one of the bigger provinces in South Africa and if their inflation rate is inflated artificially due to the rental bubble in the province it is likely that the overall CPI of South Africa is being overestimated, which has a significant impact on South Africa's monetary policy. See more regarding South Africa's November 2018 inflation rate here.
- Transport: 1.5 (or 28.8% of the total CPI in November 2018)
- Housing and utilities: 1.3 (or 25% of the total CPI in November 2018)
- Miscellaneous goods and services with 0.9 (or17.4% of the total CPI in November 2018). Miscellaneous goods and services contains all the various insurance types such as household, vehicle insurance, medical aids etc.
The three main categories mentioned above contributed over 70% of the total inflation number for South Africa during November 2018. Taking a quick look at the inflation rates of the various provinces of South Africa:
- Western Cape: 5.7%
- Gauteng: 5.4%
- South Africa's overall headline inflation: 5.2%
- Eastern Cape: 4.9%
- Mpumalanga: 4.8%
- Free State: 4.7%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.5%
- Northern Cape: 4.4%
- North-West: 4.4%
- Limpopo:4.3%
For the last 22 months the Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any of the provinces in South Africa, and according to Statistics South Africa it is due to the high rental increases in the provinces. As rent is used as a proxy to estimate the cost of housing in the CPI basket. But with rental increases being heavily inflated in South Africa we believe the higher than usual inflation in the Western Cape is artificial in nature, but the worry is the fact that the Western Cape is one of the bigger provinces in South Africa and if their inflation rate is inflated artificially due to the rental bubble in the province it is likely that the overall CPI of South Africa is being overestimated, which has a significant impact on South Africa's monetary policy. See more regarding South Africa's November 2018 inflation rate here.
21 November 2018: October 2018 inflation at 5.1%
So for the 21st month in a row the Western Cape has had the highest rate of inflation of any of South Africa's provinces. According to Stats SA the reason for this is due to the fact that Rent and Owners equivalent rent (or opportunity cost of staying in a house instead of renting it out) and its inflation, in the Western Cape is far greater than it is any of the other provinces, and this keeps driving the province inflation higher than the national average and the other provinces inflation.
So briefly the inflation rate of the various provinces for October 2018 are as follows:
- Western Cape: 5.4%
- Gauteng: 5.3%
- South Africa: 4.1%
- Mpumalanga: 5%
- Eastern Cape: 4.9%
- Free State: 4.7%
- Northern Cape: 4.5%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.4%
- North West: 4.4%
- Limpopo: 4%
24 October: September 2018 inflation at 4.9%
The interactive map below shows the inflation rate per province in South Africa per month from the start of 2018. And once again, the Western Cape has the highest rate of inflation of any of the provinces in South Africa. That is the 20th month in a row in which the inflation rate of the Western Cape is higher than that of any of the other provinces in South Africa. We sent a query regarding this to Statistics South Africa and will update readers once a response on the matter has been received.
So briefly the inflation rate of the various provinces for September 2018 are as follows:
For example the prices of goods will fluctuate and in some cases decline, as competition and over supply can force prices down as retailers or businesses try to get more business and to sell their stock on hand. On the other hand, those offering a service, for example a haircut, will hardly ever lower their price, but will be quick to increase their prices should their input costs such as electricity, water or rent go up.
- Western Cape: 5.6%
- Gauteng:5.1%
- South Africa: 4.9%
- Mpumalanga: 4.8%
- Eastern Cape: 4.5%
- Free State: 4.5%
- Northern Cape: 4.3%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 4.3%
- North West: 4.2%
- Limpopo: 3.9%
For example the prices of goods will fluctuate and in some cases decline, as competition and over supply can force prices down as retailers or businesses try to get more business and to sell their stock on hand. On the other hand, those offering a service, for example a haircut, will hardly ever lower their price, but will be quick to increase their prices should their input costs such as electricity, water or rent go up.
- South Africa: 4.9%
19 October: August 2018 inflation at 4.9%
The interactive map below shows the inflation rate per province in South Africa per month from the start of 2018. And once again, the Western Cape has the highest rate of inflation of any of the provinces in South Africa. That is the 19th month in a row in which the inflation rate of the Western Cape is higher than that of any of the other provinces in South Africa.
So what are the main contributors the the inflation rate currently in South Africa? The main components driving South Africa's current inflation rate are shown below: Note this shows the relative contribution to the 4.9%. Big weighted items with low inflation rates will still contribute significantly
- Food and non alcoholic beverages: 0.6
- Alcoholic beverages and tobacco: 0.3
- Clothing and Footwear: 0.1
- Housing and utilities: 1.3
- Household content and services: 0.1
- Health: 0.1
- Transport: 1.3
- Education: 0.2
- Restaurants and hotels: 0.1
- Miscellaneous goods and services: 0.9
- Residual: -0.1
- All Items (Actual inflation rate: 4.9
19 July 2018: June 2018 inflation at 4.6%
The interactive map below shows the latest inflation rate per province up to June 2018 for all South Africa's provinces. And what has become a familiar pattern, the Western Cape had the highest annual rate of inflation in June 2018, with its inflation rate sitting far above the national official inflation rate of 4.6%. And this is the 17th month in a row that the Western Cape recorded an inflation rate higher than that of any of the other provinces. Some form of bias being built up into the Western Cape's numbers? We wonder. Is it the the type of outlets or products that they collect in this province that is causing this?
The summary below shows the inflation rate per province (in descending order) as measured by Statistics South Africa for June 2018:
- Western Cape: 5.4%
- Gauteng: 4.6%
- Free State: 4.6%
- Headline/Overall inflation in South Africa: 4.6%
- Eastern Cape: 4.3%
- Northern Cape: 4.1%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 3.7%
- Mpumalanga: 3.7%
- Limpopo: 3.6%
- North West: 3.6%
20 June 2018: May 2018 inflation at 4.4%
The interactive map below shows the latest inflation rate per province up to May 2018 for all South Africa's provinces. And what has become a familiar pattern, the Western Cape had the highest annual rate of inflation in May 2018, with its inflation rate sitting far above the national official inflation rate of 4.4%
The question that one has to ask is why is it that the Western Cape keeps having the highest inflation rate of all the provinces in South Africa? Is there some for of bias (either the way prices are collected in this province, or the type of stores prices are collected at, or due to the structure of their basket that leads the Western Cape to sit with the highest inflation rates of all provinces consistently)
Province |
Inflation rate for May 2018 |
North West |
3.3 |
Mpumalanga |
3.5 |
Limpopo |
3.6 |
KwaZulu-Natal |
3.8 |
Northern Cape |
3.8 |
Eastern Cape |
4.0 |
Free State |
4.2 |
South Africa |
4.4 |
Gauteng |
4.5 |
Western Cape |
5.2 |
The Western Cape has had the highest inflation rate of any province in South Africa for the last 16 months. Surely this has to raise some form of suspicion or alarm with the Statistics agency publishing these numbers? We will ask them a few questions regarding this and post their response here as soon as we receive it.
20 May 2018: April 2018 inflation at 4.5%
The table below provides a summary of the latest inflation rates per province as well as the overall official rate of inflation for South Africa. While the majority of provinces have inflation rates lower than that of the official inflation rate, provinces which makes up a large portion of the overall spending in South Africa , such as Gauteng and Western Cape, have inflation figures above the national average.
And as has been the trend in recent months, the Western Cape's inflation rate continues to outpace that of the other provinces. We really do feel for them as not only is their inflation rate the highest, but as we showed yesterday with this blog post, they pay on average the most per 330ml of beer.
And as has been the trend in recent months, the Western Cape's inflation rate continues to outpace that of the other provinces. We really do feel for them as not only is their inflation rate the highest, but as we showed yesterday with this blog post, they pay on average the most per 330ml of beer.
Province |
Inflation rate for April 2018 |
North West |
3.4 |
Limpopo |
3.5 |
Kwazulu-Natal |
3.7 |
Mpumalanga |
3.8 |
Northern Cape |
4.0 |
Free State |
4.0 |
Eastern Cape |
4.5 |
South Africa |
4.5 |
Gauteng |
4.6 |
Western Cape |
5.3 |
20 April 2012: March 2018 inflation at 3.8%
The graphic below shows the latest inflation figures per province in South Africa. The colours of the map has been updated again. And the pattern as has been observed in recent months continues, in which the Western Cape is the province with the highest inflation rate in South Africa.
While the Western Cape has the highest level of inflation of all the provinces in South Africa, the North West is the province that currently has the lowest levels of inflation. With it being far lower than official inflation rate of South Africa. The table below shows the inflation rate per province for March 2018:
Province |
Inflation rate for March 2018 |
North West |
2.7 |
Limpopo |
2.9 |
Kwazulu-Natal |
3.1 |
Mpumalanga |
3.2 |
Northern Cape |
3.4 |
Free State |
3.6 |
Eastern Cape |
3.8 |
South Africa |
3.8 |
Gauteng |
3.9 |
Western Cape |
4.4 |
So is the water crisis in Western Cape leading to higher levels of inflation in the Western Cape? Or do Western Cape consumers tend to buy goods and services which prices are more prone to price increases?
And why is Gauteng's inflation rate always to close to the inflation rate of South Africa as a whole? Well due to the significant weight of Gauteng (around 35% of total inflation basket is made up by Gauteng) in the South African inflation basket, it is not surprising that the movement and levels of inflation experienced in Gauteng is close to that of South Africa as a whole, as Gauteng is the main driver and contributor to inflation in South Africa.
And why is Gauteng's inflation rate always to close to the inflation rate of South Africa as a whole? Well due to the significant weight of Gauteng (around 35% of total inflation basket is made up by Gauteng) in the South African inflation basket, it is not surprising that the movement and levels of inflation experienced in Gauteng is close to that of South Africa as a whole, as Gauteng is the main driver and contributor to inflation in South Africa.
22 November 2017: October 2017 inflation at 4.8%
The animated, interactive map of South Africa shows South Africa's inflation rate per province over time. We have decided to change the colour scheme up a bit compared to our last update a month ago.
Interesting to note is the fact that Western Cape continues to have by far the highest level of inflation of all the provinces in South Africa. In last months update we published a table showing the inflation rate of all the provinces as well as the overall level of inflation in South Africa. See the table below showing the year on year inflation rate for all South Africa's provinces. Below the table an image version of the table showing graphically how much higher Western Cape's inflation is compared to the rest of South Africa.
Province |
Inflation rate for October 2017 |
Northern Cape |
3.5 |
Mpumalanga |
3.5 |
North West |
3.5 |
Limpopo |
4.1 |
Kwazulu-Natal |
4.1 |
Free State |
4.2 |
Eastern Cape |
4.6 |
South Africa |
4.8 |
Gauteng |
4.8 |
Western Cape |
6.3 |
The question is what is driving inflation upwards at a rate much faster in Western Cape than the rest of the country? While it is not uncommon for a province's inflation to far outstrip that of others for a month or two, we noted last month that Western Cape's inflation for 2017 so far is far higher than the other provinces. So this is not a once off event. Consumers in the Western Cape are truly experiencing price increases a lot more than the rest of South Africa. Guess that's the price they have to pay for the natural beauty that surrounds them.
The image above uses the data in the table shown above to graphically represent the inflation rates per province, as we know a lot of our readers prefer looking at images and graphics instead of tables (dont worry so do we). The image clearly shows on the colour scale that the Western Cape's inflation rate is far above that of the rest of the provinces in South Africa.
18 October 2017: Inflation spikes as meat prices rise.
The interactive map of South Africa above shows the inflation rate per province in South Africa for each month as published by Statistics South Africa, Based on the latest CPI data, inflation is highest in the province of the Western Cape and lowest in Mpumalanga, while the inflation rate of Gauteng is very similar to the overall inflation rate of South Africa, and this is due to the fact that Gauteng carries almost a third of the weight of the CPI basket.
The latest official CPI for September 2017 is sitting at 5.1% (a spike from the 4,8% the month before). And based on the numbers this is largely driven by strong meat price increases. And this is secondary inflation effects from the drought SA experienced in its recent past. This is a prime example of Cost push inflation. Inflation is being pushed up by cost pressures, due to limited meat supplies, and not due to increased consumer demand. We hope the South African Reserve Bank takes this into account when meeting to set interest rates.
Average level of inflation per province for 2017 (Jan 2017 to Sep 2017) is shown in the table below:
The latest official CPI for September 2017 is sitting at 5.1% (a spike from the 4,8% the month before). And based on the numbers this is largely driven by strong meat price increases. And this is secondary inflation effects from the drought SA experienced in its recent past. This is a prime example of Cost push inflation. Inflation is being pushed up by cost pressures, due to limited meat supplies, and not due to increased consumer demand. We hope the South African Reserve Bank takes this into account when meeting to set interest rates.
Average level of inflation per province for 2017 (Jan 2017 to Sep 2017) is shown in the table below:
Province |
Average Inflation rate for 2017 |
Northern Cape |
4.3 |
Mpumalanga |
4.6 |
North West |
4.9 |
Limpopo |
5.3 |
Free State |
5.4 |
Gauteng |
5.4 |
Kwazulu-Natal |
5.4 |
South Africa |
5.5 |
Eastern Cape |
5.6 |
Western Cape |
6.4 |
For 2017 so far the Northern Cape has the lowest level of inflation (at 4.3%) while the Western Cape has by far the highest average level of inflation (6.4%) of all the provinces in South Africa. South Africa as a whole has an average rate of inflation for 2017 so far of 5.5%. And two of SA's biggest provinces in terms of economic importance (Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal) has average inflation rates for 2017 of 5.4%
23 August 2017: Handbrake being pulled up on South Africa's inflation rate
Consumers should be very happy with the latest inflation figures published by Statistics South Africa. It shows South Africa's inflation slowed to just 4.6% year on year (I.e comparing prices in July 2017 to July 2016 yielded a price increase of 4.6%). It is one of the lowest rates of inflation that South Africa has experienced in its recent past, and it paves the way for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to reduce interest rates a little more to assist struggling South African consumers and the weak economy. (Though lower interest rates might lead to a weaker Rand). But it has been so weak over the years thanks to Zuma's midnight cabinet reshuffles and weekend special ministers we doubt a lower interest rate will have a significant impact on the Rand at this stage.
Below South Africa's inflation rates over time on a interactive map graphic showing the inflation per province over time.
Below South Africa's inflation rates over time on a interactive map graphic showing the inflation per province over time.
How to read the interactive Inflation Heat Map from 2014/01 to 2017/07
The interactive map below shows the year on year inflation rate of all the provinces in South Africa (All Urban Areas-All Items per province). The lighter green colour shows lowest levels of inflation and the darker the colour gets the higher the level of inflation present in that specific month and province.
February 2016: How fast things change
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Going along nicely in August 2015:
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August 2015:
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The image on the right shows the inflation heat map for August 2015. As can be seen from the image, the overall level of inflation for all provinces are pretty low (based on their colours).
But an inflation storm was starting to brew in South Africa. This was mostly due to the severe drought being experienced in South Africa. The drought led to South Africa importing more agricultural products, at a higher price than what we can produce it for locally (weather permitting). This leads to higher food prices, increased feed costs (since some of this has to be imported now) for livestock, and will filter through to higher meat prices as the cost of rearing these animals become higher. |
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Fast forward to February 2016:
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February 2016:
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Six months down the line and the inflation picture on the right has changed significantly. The map has moved from light blue (indicating low inflation) to light brown to red (indicating significantly higher levels of inflation).
When inflation moves so strongly, and so quickly, its hardly ever caused by increased demand (Demand Pull Inflation). It is more than likely caused by external shocks (Cost Push Factors). Demand pull is a slower and more gradual continues increase in inflation, as overall demand tends to move at a slower rate than sudden price shocks (for example, oil price shocks, exchange rate volatility etc). This brings us back to our blog post the other day in which we contended that the South African Reserve Bank is raising interest rates more to protect the Rand than to control inflation. The inflation moves experienced now are not caused by increased demand, but by factors beyond the Reserve Bank's control (like the drought in South Africa). Below the interactive inflation heat map from January 2014 to February 2016. |
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