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We take a look at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) trading statistics for the week ending 2 August 2019 and compare the numbers to that of a year ago.
Foreigners were net sellers to the tune of R5 billion of SA listed shares during the last week, this over and above the R6 billion they sold the week before. Foreigners are running away from South Africa at a rapid pace. |
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Trading statistics for the week ended 2 August 2019
Below a short summary of SA equities from Peregrine Treasury Services before we look at the JSE trading statistics for the week ending 2 August 2019.
SOUTH AFRICAN EQUITY
South African markets took on a very slow start to the week, with no more than R11 billion (average - R22 billion) trickling through the All Share index on Monday’s trading day. Relatively petty news came out of Old Mutual’s slight bickering with their ‘suspending’ CEO, Peter Moyo, and the legal battle that ensues. With a world of more materially important news, this headline is not worth wasting one’s time on - if anything, its more brand-damaging on Old Mutual and Moyo himself. Mondi reported more favorable results, when looking at their counterpart. Some of the numbers coming out of the paper-based producing firm were as follows:
Shoprite’s share price rallied by 9%, after the retailer reported that its core business, Supermarkets RSA, increased its sales by 4.9% for the 52 weeks ending 30 June 2019. In general, the move wouldn’t necessarily have been linked to guidance and results being in-line with expectations. The positive move seen in the share price is likely due to stronger sales growth for the period versus the headline earnings numbers which Shoprite actually gave negative guidance on.
Shoprite’s African business seems to be battling it’s way through the dark-and-dreary woods, especially in Angola, where hyper-inflation is veiling the country. Whether Shoprite decides to keep these kinds of countries within their portfolio, or not, could be a large factor, when looking at the firm’s forward-looking trajectory.
For the moment, both declining sales coupled with hyperinflation in Angola is, and will continue to be, a challenging situation for Shoprite to navigate. Currency instability in Angola or any other of Shoprite’s African business operations may force the company to examine its strategic geographic business locations on the continent in the longer run.
Read the full article here
JSE Trading Statistics for the week ending 2 August 2019
Number of trades:
Number of trades (2019): 1 581 572
Number of trades (2018): 1 284 788
% change year on year: 23.10%
Volume traded:
Volume traded (2019):1 556 124 000
Volume of traded (2018): 1 498 821 000
% change year on year: 3.82%
Value of trades:
Value of trades (2019): R101 783 854 000
Value of trades (2018): R97 365 844 000
% change year on year: 4.54%
Foreign purchase/selling:
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R5 069 662 000
Net sales/Purchases (2018): -R3 793 138 000
So year to date (YTD) foreigners have been net seller/buyers:
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R43.79 billion
Net sales/Purchases (2018): R10.49 billion
So a year ago foreigners were net buyers of SA listed shares to the value of R10.49 billion for the YTD while this year they have been net sellers to the tune of -R43.79 billion in the year to date (YTD). That is a R54.2 billion swing in the value of foreigners being net buyers or sellers over the course of the last 12 months. A clear sign that foreign capital is still leaving South African equities in vast amounts. Even with the Ramaphosa presidency trying to win back investor confidence. ESKOM's financial woes are scaring the markets and foreign investors. And with expected exchange rate weakness due to ESKOM's problems foreigners are selling their Rand holdings in order to protect against Rand weakness
JSE total market capitalisation:
Market Cap (2019): R16.256 trillion
Market Cap (2018): R14.603 trillion
% change year on year: 11.32%
So as shown in the JSE total market capitalisation above, the overall stock market of South Africa has increased substantially over the course of the last 12 months (and it would have been even higher if it wasn't for the tariff war between the USA and China). The markets had a particularly positive start to the year, with all four months of the year ending in positive territory. While May ended the month strongly in the negative. June fought back and ended the months 4.55% in the green. But July is off to a pretty shaky start with the JSE All share ending down about -1.6% for the first two trading weeks of the second half of the year
See our JSE Calendar tracker for more.
Key issues for the market and South Africa during 2019 will be:
SOUTH AFRICAN EQUITY
South African markets took on a very slow start to the week, with no more than R11 billion (average - R22 billion) trickling through the All Share index on Monday’s trading day. Relatively petty news came out of Old Mutual’s slight bickering with their ‘suspending’ CEO, Peter Moyo, and the legal battle that ensues. With a world of more materially important news, this headline is not worth wasting one’s time on - if anything, its more brand-damaging on Old Mutual and Moyo himself. Mondi reported more favorable results, when looking at their counterpart. Some of the numbers coming out of the paper-based producing firm were as follows:
- 8% increase earnings per share of EUR 0.962 cents per share.
- Profit before tax came in at EUR 632 million (up from the previous period by 29%)
- Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (six months) came in at EUR 894 million (beating the last period by five percent)
- Ordinary interim dividend of EUR 0.27 cents per share.
Shoprite’s share price rallied by 9%, after the retailer reported that its core business, Supermarkets RSA, increased its sales by 4.9% for the 52 weeks ending 30 June 2019. In general, the move wouldn’t necessarily have been linked to guidance and results being in-line with expectations. The positive move seen in the share price is likely due to stronger sales growth for the period versus the headline earnings numbers which Shoprite actually gave negative guidance on.
Shoprite’s African business seems to be battling it’s way through the dark-and-dreary woods, especially in Angola, where hyper-inflation is veiling the country. Whether Shoprite decides to keep these kinds of countries within their portfolio, or not, could be a large factor, when looking at the firm’s forward-looking trajectory.
For the moment, both declining sales coupled with hyperinflation in Angola is, and will continue to be, a challenging situation for Shoprite to navigate. Currency instability in Angola or any other of Shoprite’s African business operations may force the company to examine its strategic geographic business locations on the continent in the longer run.
Read the full article here
JSE Trading Statistics for the week ending 2 August 2019
Number of trades:
Number of trades (2019): 1 581 572
Number of trades (2018): 1 284 788
% change year on year: 23.10%
Volume traded:
Volume traded (2019):1 556 124 000
Volume of traded (2018): 1 498 821 000
% change year on year: 3.82%
Value of trades:
Value of trades (2019): R101 783 854 000
Value of trades (2018): R97 365 844 000
% change year on year: 4.54%
Foreign purchase/selling:
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R5 069 662 000
Net sales/Purchases (2018): -R3 793 138 000
So year to date (YTD) foreigners have been net seller/buyers:
Net sales/Purchases (2019): -R43.79 billion
Net sales/Purchases (2018): R10.49 billion
So a year ago foreigners were net buyers of SA listed shares to the value of R10.49 billion for the YTD while this year they have been net sellers to the tune of -R43.79 billion in the year to date (YTD). That is a R54.2 billion swing in the value of foreigners being net buyers or sellers over the course of the last 12 months. A clear sign that foreign capital is still leaving South African equities in vast amounts. Even with the Ramaphosa presidency trying to win back investor confidence. ESKOM's financial woes are scaring the markets and foreign investors. And with expected exchange rate weakness due to ESKOM's problems foreigners are selling their Rand holdings in order to protect against Rand weakness
JSE total market capitalisation:
Market Cap (2019): R16.256 trillion
Market Cap (2018): R14.603 trillion
% change year on year: 11.32%
So as shown in the JSE total market capitalisation above, the overall stock market of South Africa has increased substantially over the course of the last 12 months (and it would have been even higher if it wasn't for the tariff war between the USA and China). The markets had a particularly positive start to the year, with all four months of the year ending in positive territory. While May ended the month strongly in the negative. June fought back and ended the months 4.55% in the green. But July is off to a pretty shaky start with the JSE All share ending down about -1.6% for the first two trading weeks of the second half of the year
See our JSE Calendar tracker for more.
Key issues for the market and South Africa during 2019 will be:
- Exchange Rate (seems to be see sawing a lot. See our exchange rate page)
- The impact of the 25 bp cut announced by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee and the impact will have on the Rand as well as the South African economy on the medium to long term
- ESKOM's financial woes and weaker than expected tax collections is forcing government to borrow more money, which is negatively affecting the South African exchange rate, and potential credit rating cuts coming for South Africa's government which pushes up the cost of borrowing, and this at a time when government is borrowing more and more
- Expropriation of land without compensation (EWC)
- Potential expansionary monetary policy coming considering the very weak economic growth numbers
- Sluggish economic growth. See our SA GDP page and high levels of unemployment
- Tax increases announced in the budget speech and how it will affect South African consumers spending patterns and potentially increase inflation levels as taxes were increased by rates higher than inflation. In particular lack of bracket creep relief and higher sin taxes, fuel levies and road accident fund levies will hurt consumers.