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In this article we take a look at the annual growth rates of the provincial GDP's of South Africa. Just how fast are South Africa's various provinces growing? Is there a particular province that stands out in terms of its economic growth or economic decline?
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Provincial GDP's in South Africa
The line chart below shows the annual GDP growth rates per provinces since 2008. Note the growth rates are based on 2010 constant prices as published by Statistics South Africa.
The first thing that one notices is the decline in the annual growth rate for all provinces during 2009. This was at the hart of the financial crises when South Africa, like most other countries entered a recession due to the financial crises in the USA that was brought about by the sub-prime lending fiasco.
The second observation one can make is the gradual downward trend in the year on year growth rates from 2010 to the end of 2017. There has been no upward moment for any of South Africa's provinces GDP. While growth might still have taken place, it kept growing at a every slower rate. And this is where South Africa is finding itself now. Its growth is not positive or strong enough to lead to more growth. The economy is merely stumbling along barely growing faster than the country's population. In fact in recent years the economy grew at rates well below the population growth rates. And what this means is that South Africa's economic pie which is growing slower than the population is being shared amongst ever more people, which essentially makes each and every South African worse of than they were the year before. This is called and measured by GDP per capita, or economic value per person in a country. See our Economic History Page where we calculate the GDP per capita.
Another observation on the graphic above is dashed line we took the liberty of creating. This is the annual economic growth rate for the province of North West. As is clear from the graphic the economic growth rate of the North West is far more volatile than that of any of the other provinces. Sadly its economic fortunes is largely based on the mining industry. In particular the platinum mining industry. When commodities and platinum prices boom North West booms, when it suffers, the North West suffers.
The summary below shows the average annual growth rate achieved per province since the start of 2008:
Now for the other question we get asked alot. Which province contributes the most to South Africa's economy. Or which province in South Africa has the biggest economy. The summary below shows the contribution various provinces make to South Africa's total GDP (as at end 2017)
So Gauteng has by far the biggest economy in South Africa, with it making up over a third of South Africa's economy. It is also more than double the size of the second biggest province in South Africa in terms of economic output, which is KwaZulu-Natal. A lot of readers might find it as a surprise to see KwaZulu-Natal has a bigger economy than the Western Cape, but keep in mind Durban has massive oil refining capacity, it has the Durban port which is the busiest port in South Africa. In addition to this the Richard Bay Coal terminal is also in KwaZulu-Natal. So the province has significant economic infrastructure
The second observation one can make is the gradual downward trend in the year on year growth rates from 2010 to the end of 2017. There has been no upward moment for any of South Africa's provinces GDP. While growth might still have taken place, it kept growing at a every slower rate. And this is where South Africa is finding itself now. Its growth is not positive or strong enough to lead to more growth. The economy is merely stumbling along barely growing faster than the country's population. In fact in recent years the economy grew at rates well below the population growth rates. And what this means is that South Africa's economic pie which is growing slower than the population is being shared amongst ever more people, which essentially makes each and every South African worse of than they were the year before. This is called and measured by GDP per capita, or economic value per person in a country. See our Economic History Page where we calculate the GDP per capita.
Another observation on the graphic above is dashed line we took the liberty of creating. This is the annual economic growth rate for the province of North West. As is clear from the graphic the economic growth rate of the North West is far more volatile than that of any of the other provinces. Sadly its economic fortunes is largely based on the mining industry. In particular the platinum mining industry. When commodities and platinum prices boom North West booms, when it suffers, the North West suffers.
The summary below shows the average annual growth rate achieved per province since the start of 2008:
- Western Cape: 3.1%
- Gauteng: 3.1%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 2.9%
- Limpopo: 2.5%
- Eastern Cape: 2.4%
- Mpumalanga: 2.3%
- Northern Cape: 2.0%
- Free State: 1.7%
- North West: 1.4%
Now for the other question we get asked alot. Which province contributes the most to South Africa's economy. Or which province in South Africa has the biggest economy. The summary below shows the contribution various provinces make to South Africa's total GDP (as at end 2017)
- Gauteng: 34.82%
- KwaZulu-Natal: 16.05%
- Western Cape: 13.86%
- Eastern Cape: 7.53%
- Mpumalanga: 7.25%
- Limpopo: 7.20%
- North West: 5.91%
- Free State: 5.20%
- Northern Cape: 2.20%
So Gauteng has by far the biggest economy in South Africa, with it making up over a third of South Africa's economy. It is also more than double the size of the second biggest province in South Africa in terms of economic output, which is KwaZulu-Natal. A lot of readers might find it as a surprise to see KwaZulu-Natal has a bigger economy than the Western Cape, but keep in mind Durban has massive oil refining capacity, it has the Durban port which is the busiest port in South Africa. In addition to this the Richard Bay Coal terminal is also in KwaZulu-Natal. So the province has significant economic infrastructure