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In our continued efforts to give our readers a broad number of views, opinions and information, we continue to provide PSG's daily market updates and add our own daily inputs in at the end.
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Short summary of PSG's market commentary for 25 July 2019
South Africa
The JSE closed lower on Wednesday, after disappointing local corporate and economic news. Even the stable inflation reading of 4.50% y/y could not lift the local market. The JSE All Share fell 0.98%.
United States
Officials from the US and China are expected to have a face-to-face meeting next week after the two countries agreed to resume trade negotiations. US markets did not pay too much attention to this, being driven by earnings results from tech stocks. US indices opened mixed.
Europe
Germany’s IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index missed market expectations, with the reading pointing to the steepest contraction in activity in seven years. However, earnings releases boosted markets with the DAX 30 closing up by 0.26%.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as prospects of fresh China-US trade negotiations lifted sentiment, while investors waited for a possible US rate cuts this month. The Hang Seng index ended up by 0.20%.
Japan
Japanese shares rose on Wednesday after a news report that US and Chinese trade negotiators will meet in Shanghai next week lifted investor sentiment. The Nikkei share average rose 0.41%.
Rand
The rand was firmer against the dollar on Wednesday afternoon as hopes of a US-China trade truce improved sentiment. At 19h45, a dollar traded at R13.88.
Precious metals
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors towards the safe-haven metal. At 19h45, an ounce of gold traded at $1424.35.
Oil
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by a sharp fall in US crude stocks and tensions over Iran. At 19h45, a barrel of Brent crude traded at $64.10
The JSE closed lower on Wednesday, after disappointing local corporate and economic news. Even the stable inflation reading of 4.50% y/y could not lift the local market. The JSE All Share fell 0.98%.
United States
Officials from the US and China are expected to have a face-to-face meeting next week after the two countries agreed to resume trade negotiations. US markets did not pay too much attention to this, being driven by earnings results from tech stocks. US indices opened mixed.
Europe
Germany’s IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index missed market expectations, with the reading pointing to the steepest contraction in activity in seven years. However, earnings releases boosted markets with the DAX 30 closing up by 0.26%.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong stocks ended slightly higher on Wednesday as prospects of fresh China-US trade negotiations lifted sentiment, while investors waited for a possible US rate cuts this month. The Hang Seng index ended up by 0.20%.
Japan
Japanese shares rose on Wednesday after a news report that US and Chinese trade negotiators will meet in Shanghai next week lifted investor sentiment. The Nikkei share average rose 0.41%.
Rand
The rand was firmer against the dollar on Wednesday afternoon as hopes of a US-China trade truce improved sentiment. At 19h45, a dollar traded at R13.88.
Precious metals
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors towards the safe-haven metal. At 19h45, an ounce of gold traded at $1424.35.
Oil
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by a sharp fall in US crude stocks and tensions over Iran. At 19h45, a barrel of Brent crude traded at $64.10
Our daily update
Yesterday we covered the latest maritime transport review published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Below a short extract
Growing seaborne trade
Global seaborne trade is doing well, supported by the 2017 upswing in the world economy. Expanding at 4 percent, the fastest growth in five years, global maritime trade gathered momentum and raised sentiment in the shipping industry. Total volumes reached 10.7 billion tons, reflecting an additional 411 million tons, nearly half of which were made of dry bulk commodities. Global containerized trade increased by 6.4 per cent, following the historical lows of the two previous years. Dry bulk cargo increased by 4.0 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent in 2016, while growth in crude oil shipments decelerated to 2.4 per cent. Reduced shipments from exporters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were offset by increased trade flows originating from the Atlantic basin and moving eastward towards Asia. This new trend has reshaped crude oil trade patterns, which became less concentrated on usual suppliers from Western Asia. Supported by the growing global refining capacity – especially in Asia – and the appeal of gas as a cleaner energy source, refined petroleum products and gas increased by a combined 3.9 per cent in 2017. Prospects for seaborne trade are positive; UNCTAD projects volume increases of 4 per cent in 2018, a rate equivalent to that of 2017. Contingent on continued favourable trends in the global economy, UNCTAD is forecasting a 3.8 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2018 and 2023. Volumes across all segments are set to grow, with containerized and dry bulk commodities expected to record the fastest growth at the expense of tanker volumes. UNCTAD projections for overall seaborne trade are consistent with historical trends, whereby seaborne trade increased at an annual average rate of 3.5 per cent between 2005 and 2017. Projections of rapid growth in dry cargo are in line with a five-decade-long pattern that saw the share of tanker volumes being displaced by dry cargoes, dropping from over 50 per cent in 1970 to less than 33 per cent in 2017
Read the full article here
Growing seaborne trade
Global seaborne trade is doing well, supported by the 2017 upswing in the world economy. Expanding at 4 percent, the fastest growth in five years, global maritime trade gathered momentum and raised sentiment in the shipping industry. Total volumes reached 10.7 billion tons, reflecting an additional 411 million tons, nearly half of which were made of dry bulk commodities. Global containerized trade increased by 6.4 per cent, following the historical lows of the two previous years. Dry bulk cargo increased by 4.0 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent in 2016, while growth in crude oil shipments decelerated to 2.4 per cent. Reduced shipments from exporters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were offset by increased trade flows originating from the Atlantic basin and moving eastward towards Asia. This new trend has reshaped crude oil trade patterns, which became less concentrated on usual suppliers from Western Asia. Supported by the growing global refining capacity – especially in Asia – and the appeal of gas as a cleaner energy source, refined petroleum products and gas increased by a combined 3.9 per cent in 2017. Prospects for seaborne trade are positive; UNCTAD projects volume increases of 4 per cent in 2018, a rate equivalent to that of 2017. Contingent on continued favourable trends in the global economy, UNCTAD is forecasting a 3.8 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2018 and 2023. Volumes across all segments are set to grow, with containerized and dry bulk commodities expected to record the fastest growth at the expense of tanker volumes. UNCTAD projections for overall seaborne trade are consistent with historical trends, whereby seaborne trade increased at an annual average rate of 3.5 per cent between 2005 and 2017. Projections of rapid growth in dry cargo are in line with a five-decade-long pattern that saw the share of tanker volumes being displaced by dry cargoes, dropping from over 50 per cent in 1970 to less than 33 per cent in 2017
Read the full article here
Our JSE All Share index daily performance calendar
Visit our JSE Calendar tracker page for a expanded version of the calendar below
The graphic below provides the daily returns of the JSE All Share Index (J203) on a calendar chart. Provides a great overview of the All share index over the course of the month. It will be updated daily with our daily investment update as received from PSG.
So the South African stock market is still up substantially for the year, with the only negative months so far being the month of May in which markets pulled back pretty sharply. But the markets rebounded in June with it ending up close to 5% for the month.
The JSE All Share Index is down -0.74% for the month of July 2019. Question is can it get into the green by the end of the month, to make it 6 out of 7 months of 2019 that the JSE All share has ended in positive territory?
For more on daily market movements see our 2019 Calendar tracker.
But we as South African investors are losing out in Dollar terms. Largely due to continued Rand weakness not only over the short term but over the last couple of years. We continue to advise investors to take money out of South Africa and invest it offshore. Looking for ideas for investments to make? Go read this article
The JSE All Share Index is down -0.74% for the month of July 2019. Question is can it get into the green by the end of the month, to make it 6 out of 7 months of 2019 that the JSE All share has ended in positive territory?
For more on daily market movements see our 2019 Calendar tracker.
But we as South African investors are losing out in Dollar terms. Largely due to continued Rand weakness not only over the short term but over the last couple of years. We continue to advise investors to take money out of South Africa and invest it offshore. Looking for ideas for investments to make? Go read this article