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< EOH
Grindrod >

Famous Brands (FBR) stock valuation on 13 August 2017

Category: Financial markets and stock valuations
Date: 13 August 2017
Price at time of writing: R123.20

Related Topics

  • Spur Corporation
  • Taste Holdings
  • Grindrod
  • SuperGroup
  • Famous Brand 30 May 2016

chart created with amCharts | amCharts

The rise and fall of Famous Brands. See the latest about the group here

Background and overview of Famous Brands (FBR)
Famous Brands has been the darling on the JSE for years now. They have grown exponentially in recent years. The worry is whether this growth by acquisition strategy will be sustainable in the wrong run. They have to show that they can grow brands they acquired organically.  In recent years we have compared FBR to Spur and mentioned that Spur was slower on the acquisitions while FBR far more aggressive on it, but Spur focussed on growing organically instead of via acquisitions. But for Spur at least that has changed in recent years. They have gone on a buying spree recently with brands such as RocoMamas, The Hussar Grill Casa Bellas under their name.  But FBR has not stopped acquiring brands completely though, but the pace of their acquisitions has slowed considerably.

​From FBR's website:
Famous Brands Limited is a holding company listed on the JSE Limited under the category Consumer Services: Travel and Leisure, and is Africa’s largest branded food service franchisor. The company was listed in November 1994 at a price of R1 per share, equating to a market capitalisation of R25 million. The past two decades have witnessed the Group expand almost beyond recognition from the business it was then, comprising only the Steers brand and a limited Supply Chain component, to the enterprise it is now, with a market capitalisation in excess of R11 billion, positioned within the JSE’s top 100 companies. At 08 March 2015 Famous Brands’ vertically integrated business model comprised a portfolio of 25 brands represented by a franchise network of 2 545 restaurants across South Africa, Rest of Africa, the United Kingdom and the Middle East, underpinned by substantial Logistics and Manufacturing operations. See more at www.famousbrands.co.za

Before we take a look at FBR's latest financial results we will take a look at their share price performance over the last 3 years below.

Percent change:

FBR technical analysis share price chart

The graphic below shows FBR share price on an interactive technical analysis chart for users to enjoy. The graphic shows the share price performance of FBR for the last 4 years. And based on the declining trend it's pretty obvious that they have been struggling and so is the sector they are operating in. For more on the sector see our Food and beverages page.

The big drop shown right at the end of the graphic is after FBR brought out their latest trading statement in which it stated that profits will be almost 60% lower than the previous period. Largely due to their newly acquired business Gourmet Burger Kitchen in the UK that is losing the money big time. And readers need to remember when FBR bought GBK they paid for it in pre-brexit pounds, and now GBK is earning them money in post-brexit pounds. Basically with the pound losing almost 20% overnight after brexit the valuation and expected future earnings of GBK fell by the same percentage overnight.

Financial Review:

​Scroll over or click on the funnel chart to get more details of FBRs latest financial results (12months ending February 2017)
funnel | amCharts

We wrote a while ago on Spur Corporation (SUR) and their approach to growth over the years. They followed a conservative organic growth strategy, while FBR followed the growth by acquisition approach. FBR as we mentioned in our SUR write up, went on a shopping spree for restaurants that would put Paris and Nicky Hilton to shame. They acquired various brands over recent years. In our last review we of Famous Brands we mentioned some of their acquisistions wich includes but are not limited to:
  • Milky Lane
  • Mugg&Bean
  • Vovo Telo
  • Tasha's
  • Turn n Tender 
  • Wakaberry
  • O'Hagans
  • House of Coffees
  • Salsa Mexican Grill
  • Lupa Osteria

In addition to these acquisitions their main brands include Wimpy, Debonairs, Fish Aways, Mythos and then their massive acquisition in the UK called Gourmet  Burger Kitchen. It's due to this acquisition that FBR is not paying an interim dividend. As they keeping cash in hand to fund the acquisition and to ensure enough float is available for the daily running of their businesses. ​
In a previous review we said the following "FBR acquired all these brands in order to reach critical mass and gain from economies of scale in their manufacturing and logistics services (as these serve more businesses the cost per unit of business decreases). The question that will remain for some time to come though is whether FBR bit off more than they can chew. Will they be able to make all the businesses they acquired over the years grow organically? Will FBR be able to grow organically instead of growing by acquisition?" We still feel the same way. Will FBR be able to extract growth from all of these. Or is their plan to rather make money from their logistics and manufacturing activities?

FBR's net profit margin dropped slightly from over 13% for  previous financial year (2016) to just 7.95% for the 2017 financial year.  Profit margins largely eaten up by a substantial increase in finance costs (up from R6.9mil to R131.5mil).

FBR is an extremely strong cash generating business and cash is king, as its not a form of paper profits but actual cash generated by the business. FBR generated around R4.14 a share in net profits (compared to a full year earnings per share of R5.29 for the previous financial year), while it generated almost R7.90 per share in cash. So while earnings per share has dropped compared to the previous financial year, readers should remember that FBR incurred costs related to a large acquisition which should bear fruits in coming years. Their R4.14 in net profits and their current share price of R123.30 places them on a PE ratio of 29,8 which is exceptionally high, even for fast growing FBR. And with no dividend being paid we can understand why the market has punished the share price of FBR in recent months.
​The graphic below shows the contribution of FBR's major holdings to their turnover/revenue and contributions to pre tax profits. 
3D donut | amCharts

From the above analysis its clear that FBR is actually no longer just a restaurant owner but more of a logistics and supply chain management company than anything else. Thus one must wonder of they should be valued in the same way as other restaurant sector shares on the JSE or whether they should be valued more like Grindrod (GND) and Super Group (SPG).

Their biggest margins are made on turnover from Franchise and Development with more than half of that turnover showing as pre-profits. But in saying that Franchise and Development only makes up  32% of pre-tax profits. The rest is all made up by essentially non restaurant activities which is manufacturing, logistics and supply chain related activities. The biggest contributor to FBR's pre-tax profits being Supply Chain with it making up just over 34% of total pre-tax profits.

When investors or potential investors see this, they will surely ask why FBR does not focus on Franchising and development more as the margins earned in this divisions is a lot stronger than the rest of their divisions. Logistics for example contributes 33% to turnover but only 9.3% to pre-tax profits


A few financial ratios to mull over for Famous Brands (calculated using our Financial Ratios Calculator):
  • Debt to Equity Ratio: 2.96  (more than 2 shows high levels of financial leverage). Famous Brands seems to be very lightly leveraged.
  • Current Ratio: 1.58 (A measure of liquidity. Less than one signals possible trouble in paying off current liabilities)
  • Quick Ratio: 1.12 (Another liquidity measure. Shows how much in liquid assets is available to cover current liabilities or short term debt).  
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 7.73%
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 30.62%
  • Net Profit Margin: 7.95%
  • Dividend Yield: 0%

Valuation: 
While the consumers in South Africa are under pressure, there seems to be little stopping them from dining out more regularly and foregoing cooking at home. FBR has been slamming the brakes on their acquisition spree (they still buying stakes in restaurants but the pace seemed to have slowed) and seem to be focusing on developing organic growth now, and becoming more of logistics and manufacturing company than a restaurateur. 

Based on FBR current financial results, its brands and their logistics and manufacturing activities, the market they operate it, and their strong net profit margins (and their financial ratios shown above) we value FBR at between R145.64 and R146.02. While it is lower than our previous valuations it does take into account the difficult trading conditions in South Africa and the fact that their largest acquisition which will be bringing in earnings in pounds can now be expected to bring in less in terms of Rand value after the Pound collapsed following the "Brexit" vote in the UK.

But even though our valuation is slightly lower than the previous valuation, at the current price we do feel FBR offers long term investors fantastic potential. FBR has a great track record and we are confident that they will offer investors great returns in future.
​
We use our Share Valuation Calculator as guide to valuing shares. We believe in value investing and our above mentioned share valuation is based on the underlying fundamentals and financial statements of the stock in question.

Additional Content:

Related Topics

  • Spur Corporation
  • Taste Holdings
  • Grindrod
  • SuperGroup
  • Famous Brand 30 May 2016​​


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