|
Related Topics |
|
In today's blog we take a look at South Africa's passenger new vehicle sales per channel type. Thus new vehicle sales by dealers, government, car rental agencies, exports and single unit sales (i.e sales to staff). And the story it paints is not as rosy as the headline numbers would make you believe as has been quoted in the news recently.
|
New vehicle sales. Where are the sales coming from?
The bar chart below shows the new vehicle sales in South Africa via the various channels. Sales via dealerships to regular customers, new vehciles being exported, new vehicle sales to government, new vehicle sales to rental fleets and then single units (which is vehicle manufacturers selling cars to their staff for example).
While it is clear from the bar chart that new vehicle sales is dominated by dealerships, (with it making up 46% of total new vehicle sales so far for 2017), the actual number of new vehicle sales via dealerships have actually been on the decline in recent years, and new vehicle sales via dealers as a percentage of total vehicle sales have been declining steadily over the last 20 years, as South Africa's economy opened up after apartheid. After the end of apartheid foreign companies set up manufacturing plants in South Africa where vehicles are manufactured and then exported. And this has lead to the far larger contribution played by exports in South Africa's total vehicle sales.
The bar chart below shows the year on year growth rate in total vehicle sales for the various channel types. Note 2017 is estimated based on the available data up to August 2017.
The bar chart below shows the year on year growth rate in total vehicle sales for the various channel types. Note 2017 is estimated based on the available data up to August 2017.
The large spikes in the yellow bars at the start of the graphic shows the rapid increase in vehicles being exported since 1997, coming from a low base exports were set to show strong increases over the first couple of years as production ramped up. When one zooms in on the graphic, using the scroll bar at the top of the chart one can clearly see how new vehicle sales from dealerships have been declining over time.
Interestingly in 2016 new vehicle sales to government decline substantially year on year, but that trend is set to be reversed if the 2017 estimate for new vehicle sales turns out to be correct which we think is pretty accurate. Just to get an idea by end August 2017 government has already bought more new vehicles in 2017 than the whole of 2016). So much for government cutting back on their spending
Interestingly in 2016 new vehicle sales to government decline substantially year on year, but that trend is set to be reversed if the 2017 estimate for new vehicle sales turns out to be correct which we think is pretty accurate. Just to get an idea by end August 2017 government has already bought more new vehicles in 2017 than the whole of 2016). So much for government cutting back on their spending
The bar chart below shows the proportion of new passenger vehicle sales in South Africa made up by dealer sales vs exports in South Africa per year. It clearly shows the ever increasing importance played by vehicle exports and the ever declining importance of dealer sales in total new passenger vehicle sales in South Africa.
Below a summary of the contribution of the various channel types to new passenger vehicles per year in South Africa.
So next time new passenger vehicle sales numbers are splashed across the papers and headlines, take some time to consider this number is becoming less dependent on vehicle sales from dealerships and is becoming more and more a function of South Africa's vehicle exports numbers.