Business scenario forecasting using statistical methods and machine learning
Category: Machine learnings and business forecasts
Last Updated: 13 February 2022
Last Updated: 13 February 2022
Looking for a business forecast based on certain scenarios? Look no further. With the help of statistical modeling software and econometric models we can forecast turnover, sales, expenses and a whole other array of variables based on input data provided and our wide ranging set of datasets we have available. We let artificial intelligence select the most appropriate economic model to use in your business forecast and we then forecast either months, quarters or years in advance, depending on your needs.
The software used during the forecasts is RStudio. We will share all outputs, graphs and analysis so you have access to all the information used in creating your business forecast.
The software used during the forecasts is RStudio. We will share all outputs, graphs and analysis so you have access to all the information used in creating your business forecast.
What are business scenario forecasts?
Well it is predicting or estimating the impact on certain business parameters by changes in macro economic variables such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment, exchange rates etc.
Well it is predicting or estimating the impact on certain business parameters by changes in macro economic variables such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment, exchange rates etc.
- For example Firm X would like to know the impact a 10% weakening of the exchange rate will have on their sales or bottom line.
- Firm Y is worried about rising interest rates and would like to quantify the impact of a 100 basis point rise in interest rates will have on their net profit or sales
- Firm Z is looking for a variable that is a leading indicator of turnover performance. With a large data repository we can flag and identify economic variables that is highly correlated with Firm Z's turnover And we can then identify from these variables which ones are leading indicators of Firm Z's turnover. So if a particular variable's movement is a leading indicator it provides an early indicator of what firm Z can expect to happen in a couple of months or quarters time.
Example of a GDP prediction model provided to client
The image below shows actual GDP as published by Statistics South Africa and a model developed by us to predict GDP.
Services Offered
- Once off forecasts
- Monthly forecasts
- Sensitivity analysis
- Quantifying the impact of particular economic variables on businesses turnover, expenses and profits
- Correlation and causality testing
- Testing for leading and coi-incident business indicators
Do note hesitate to contact us using the contact form below for our services offered and for our hourly rates for various services provided