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We take a look at the latest manufacturing production and sales numbers up to March 2020 of South Africa and published by Statistics South Africa . This is the last month before the national lockdown due to Covid-19. So we expect the next release to show significant declines.
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Executive summary of electricity generaetd and available for distribution
Below a short executive summary of South Africa's manufacturing production in March 2020 as published by Statistics South Africa
Manufacturing production decreased by 5,4% in March 2020 compared with March 2019. The largest negative contributions were made by the following divisions:
Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production decreased by 2,1% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. Nine of the ten manufacturing divisions reported negative growth rates over this period. The largest negative contributions were made by the following divisions:
The image below shows the year on year percentage change in the volume of goods produced in South Africa over the last couple of years. And as the image shows the manufacturing industry has been in decline in South Africa for a while before the national lockdown
Manufacturing production decreased by 5,4% in March 2020 compared with March 2019. The largest negative contributions were made by the following divisions:
- basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-8,5% and contributing -1,8 percentage points);
- petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products (-5,8% and contributing -1,3 percentage points);
- motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-13,0% and contributing -1,0 percentage point);
- wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-4,9% and contributing -0,5 of a percentage point); and
- glass and non-metallic mineral products (-13,5% and contributing -0,4 of a percentage point)
Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production decreased by 2,1% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. Nine of the ten manufacturing divisions reported negative growth rates over this period. The largest negative contributions were made by the following divisions:
- petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products (-4,6% and contributing -1,1 percentage points);
- basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-2,8% and contributing -0,5 of a percentage point); and
- motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-4,0% and contributing -0,3 of a percentage point)
The image below shows the year on year percentage change in the volume of goods produced in South Africa over the last couple of years. And as the image shows the manufacturing industry has been in decline in South Africa for a while before the national lockdown
And to show the kind of carnage we can expect in the manufacturing industry in April 2020, the image below shows the sharp decline in electricity distributed (consumed) in South Africa in April 2020, the first month of the national lockdown due to Covid-19. If so much less electricity was consumed during April 2020 one can image how much less in goods were produced in South Africa during this month. All this points to significant declines in South Africa's GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2020
The image above shows the year on year change in the electricity distribution in South Africa over the last couple of years. It is clear that there was a lot less electricity used during the Level 5 lockdown in April 2020. There was a significant decline in the electricity usage of the North West province during this period. This is largely due to the closure of mine, in particular platinum mines during this period. As mines are by far the biggest consumers of electricity in the province of the North West.