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Why SARB should cut rates today at their MPC meeting

The arguments used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to not cut interest rates are stacking up against the arguments for keeping rates constant in their now famous "wait and see" policy. SA consumers and businesses need some relief. And SARB can provide.
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Our new page: SA by Numbers

We supply readers with a lot of information and numbers regarding South Africa, its population and its economy. We will be adding content to this page on an ad hoc basis.
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How much  money is floating around in notes and coins in South Africa?

We take a look at the amount of notes and coins in circulation (M1 money supply in SA) and it's potential impact on SA's inflation. Or what it says about South Africa's economic growth.
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Is SA's economy producing close to full capacity?

We take a look at South Africa's manufacturing sector and investigate whether it is producing close to full capacity. And if not, why it's not.
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South Africa's imports and exports for Quarter 1:2017

We take a look at South Africa's exports and imports for the first quarter of 2017. And find that trade is very clustered around specific product groups, both for imports and exports. And that China is by far SA's biggest trading partner. For both imports and exports
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Best selling car brands in South Africa for 2016?

We take a look at South Africa's best selling car brands. In addition to this we take a look at car brands sold to government and the car brands South Africa export (yes we do manufacture and export cars).
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South Africa's trade balance per month from January 2010

We take a look at South Africa's monthly trade balance with the rest of the world. And find that Decembers are very good months for South Africa's trade balance, and Januaries shockling bad months.
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Radical Economic Transformation. What exactly is it government wants to transform?

We take a look at what exactly SA's economy looks like and what government aims to "radically" transform with their new but already overused phrase "radical economic transformation".
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Taxable income per municipality in South Africa

We take a look at South Africa's taxable income per municipality. We then go a step further to investigate the taxable income per registered tax payer per municipality. And we find a few surprises along the way, in particular in Stellebosch where the "Stellenbosch Mafia" is hiding.
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Crude oil imports. Does SA's fuel prices follow world crude prices?

We take a look at South Africa's crude oil imports and whether our petrol price paid at the pump follows a similar trend to world crude oil prices. And find excessive taxes is limiting the benefit SA consumers could have gained from weaker oil prices
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Import prices. Are they currently high and will the get worse due to credit downgrade?

We take a look at South Africa's import prices and whether it will get worse due to SA's credit downgrade to "junk status.
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South Africa's youth. Where are they and what are they doing?

We take a look at South Africa's youth (Ages 7-17) and find out what they are doing. Are they attending school, are they doing household chores or are they sitting around doing nothing?
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"Junk Status"? What does it mean for South Africa's economy and it's people

SA's provinces looked at in more detail

We take a look at a host of variables for each of South Africa's provinces and rank them accordingly. Gauteng for example is the smallest province but has the biggest economy and largest population. Northern Cape is largest province (in terms of square kilometers) but has the smallest economy.
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SA's economy under President Zuma

We take a look at South Africa's economic performance under President Jacob Zuma, and find that the country is suffering the effects of a president who is looking to serve his own (and his Gupta friends) interests
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South Africa's Domestic Tourism Industry

As with the rest of South Africa's industries the domestic tourism industry is really struggling. With number of trips (day and overnight) declining substantially from 2013 to 2015. Just another indicator of how sick SA's economy really is.
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Inflation of the rich and poor​

We take a look at South Africa's inflation rate from the poorest of the poor to the super rich. And find that inflation is contribution to continued inequality in South Africa. As it eats away more into the spending power of the poor than the rich.
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Food and Beverages industry in South Africa

We take a look at the Food and Beverages industry in South Africa and find that South Africans are moving away from Restaurants and Coffee shops and spending more money and Take-away and Fast Food outlets.
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SA's Tax statistics (2016)

We take a look at South Africa's Tax Statistics for 2016. And show again how South Africa is heavily dependent on a small number of tax payers and companies to foot the majority of SA's tax bill. 
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SA's manufacturing industry investigated

We take a look at South Africa's manufacturing industry and show how imports of manufactured goods are hurting the industry in SA and how the industry has shed more than 420 000 jobs in the last 9 years.
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South Africa's exports and imports to various regions for January 2017

We take a look at South Africa's exports and imports to and from various regions as well as what is being exported and imported to each and from each of the main regions. One thing is clear. SA loves importing machinery.
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South Africas pathetic economic growth for 2016. And little hope in 2017

We take a look at South Africa's pathetic economic growth in 2016 and see little to no hope of real improvements in 2017. SA's economy just limping along. While countries like the USA and UK are starting to run. Leaving SA in it's dust.
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Employment per industry and enterprise size

We take a look at the employment level per industry and enterprise size within each of these industries. How much are small enterprises contributing to formal employment levels? 
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ESKOM vs Independent Power Producers (IPP)

We take a look at power available for distribution that is being supplied by both ESKOM and IPP's on interactive battery graph
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Child births in South Africa over time. 

We take a look at live child births in South Africa over time and find that number of births are declining and woman getting older and having children.
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MTN to report a loss per share for 2016 Financial Year

We take a look at MTN's trading statement in which they report that they will make a loss per share of around 84c a share, compared to a profit of over R7 a share last year this time.
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South African Tourism. Where are our tourists coming from?

We take a look at where South Africa's inbound tourists are coming from on an interactive map.
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#Budget2017

We take a look at what South Africans can expect in #Budget2017. Dont be surprised if VAT is increased.
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Number of registered vehicles per province and fuel type

We take a look at the number of vehicles registered per province and fuel type across South Africa. 
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SA's expenditure deciles

We take a look at South Africa's expenditure deciles. Spending contributions from the 10% poorest households to the 10% richest households, and highlight the extreme levels of inequality in South Africa.
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SA's natural resources. How much is left?

We take a look at South Africa's natural resources and how much of it is left if we keep mining it at the pace we are mining it at now.
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Unemployment Rate of SA's provinces and metros

We take a look at South Africa's provinces and big metros unemployment rate and we remain concerned about the persistently high levels of unemployment for South Africa and the majority of it's provinces and metros. 
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South African Reserve Bank (SARB) High-Low inflation forecasts

We take a look at SARBS's wildely different forecasted inflation for the same time period at different MPC meetings. And wonder if they have any clue what they are doing?
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South Africans and their credit cards

We take a look at South Africans love affair with their credit cards. Are they using it to buy daily goods and services instead of emergencies?
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New CPI basket weight wheel

We take a look at the latest CPI basket weights as published by Stats SA on our inflation weights wheel
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Our Interactive JSE All Share Index Chart

Introducing our new interactive JSE All Share Index Candle Chart. Change colours, calculate percentage changes for period selected, download data used in graph, draw lines and make comments and export it as a image.
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South Africa's top export destinations for 2016 (excluding BLNS)

We take a look at South Africa's top export destination for 2016 on an interactive map. China, Germany and USA being the three biggest destinations South Africa exported to in 2016
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MTN trading update and our new interactive stock chart

We take a look at MTN's trading update from yesterday and introduce our new interactive stock chart users can edit and play around with.
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Updated interative inflation heat map

We take a look at South Africa's inflation rate per province per month on an interactive map with pause/play and select functionalities
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Famous Brands (FBR) vs Taste (TAS). Both graphs look pretty ugly, but one more so than the other

We take a look at two of South Africa's most well known listed restaurant and casual dining companies. And while the story is not pretty for either it is a lot worse for the one than the other,.
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Who owns South Africa's government bonds

We take a look at who owns South Africa's government bonds. Makes for interesting reading especially considering all the noise in the market regarding capital outflows out of South Africa.
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South Africa's CPI weights changes over time

We take a look at South Africa's CPI weights changes for some of the main expenditure items. Housing remains household's single biggest expense, while Household appliances are falling in relative importance. Indicating consumers are under pressure.
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Is the US dumping poultry in SA?

We take a look at whether the poultry industry has reason to complain about poultry being "dumped" by importing countries in South Africa
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JSE Calender Performance Tracker

Our ne w JSE Calender Performance tracker provides users with a instant snapshot of the JSE All Share movements for a particular month or day. And highlights of significant market and economic events are contained on this page.
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Taylor's Rule: Where should SA's interest rates be at?

We take a look at what Taylor's Rule says about where South Africa's interest rates should be at based on economic growth, manufacturing output and inflation.

Population density map per municipality

We take a look at the Community Survey results of 2016 in order to determine which municipalities have the highest number of people staying in it. And its clear Gauteng's municipalities are under severe strain with all the people living in the SA's smallest province.
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JSE total yield vs money market returns

We take  a look at how South Africa's stock market, the JSE total yield stacks up against money market rates.
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Where South Africa's over 50's stay

We take  a look at where South Africa's over 50's stay. We calculate the percentage of over 50's out of total population of each municipality in order to identify municipalities with large proportions of "old toppies"
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​Is the JSE expensive or not?

We take  a look at whether South Africa's stock market is expensive or not. Well it depends on who you are and where you from.
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Operational updates on JSE


 

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We take a look at the trading/operational updates various South African listed retailers have supplied after the festive season.
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What's in store for South Africa's economy in 2017? 


 

We take a look at what's in store for South Africa's economy in 2017. And it looks like it's going nowhere slowly as it has been for years. Just more of the same. Read more here

South Africa language map.

In which municipality do people speak what particular language? We show SA's languages spoken per municipality on an interactive map. And it makes for interesting viewing
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SA's trade balances with China and USA from 2010 to 2016

We take a look at SA's trade balances with China and USA from 2010 to 2016, and find that China is only after SA's mineral resources while SA gaining from trade with the USA. Read more here

Compensation vs GDP per sector

We take a look at which sector's total salaries paid as percentage of its output is the highest. And SA government employees looks extremely unproductive
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Feesmustfall politically driven?

We take a look at whether the Feesmustfall campaign is politcally driven as most households donot think that education/varsity fees are too high.
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Balance of Payments 

We take a look at the BOP of various countries. And it's clear that the US owes the world money, and the world owes China money. "Chimerica" going strong. US keeps buying and China keeps making.
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Interactive Map for South Africa's exports

We take a look at  South Africa's exports on an interactive map that allows users to select categories to gain more details on how much was exported and where it was exported too
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Manufacturing sector shedding jobs a plenty

We take a look at at how South Africa's manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs but output remained stable. Signalling the rise of the machine...
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Inflation per expenditure group

 We take a look at some of the more interesting inflation series published by Stats SA. Inflation based on household expenditure groups making for particularly interesting reading
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Net sales/ purchases of shares by foreigners on JSE

We take a look at the value of shares purchased and sold on the JSE by foreign investors. They make up a sizeable chunk of overall trade on JSE.
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Gross operating surplus (GOS) and what it says about SA's economy

We take a look at South Africa's GOS and what it says about South Africa's struggling economy
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JSE market profile. Using November 2016 data

We take a look at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), market profile and do historical comparisons
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South African Household spending on radar chart

We take a look at South African household's spending patterns on a radar chart. And check if there are significant shifts in spending over the last couple of years.
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South Africa's GDP (economic growth), 3 ways

We take a look at South Africa's GDP figures in three different ways, and show that they all tell the same depressing story. We treading water in a "stagflation" environment
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Financial results for Transport and communications sector. 

We take a look at South Africa's transport and communications sector financial results for 2015, based on the Annual Financial Statistics (AFS) published by Statistics South Africa
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Agricultural sector in South Africa

We take a look at South Africa's agricultural sector results released end of November 2016 for the 2015 calender year. Results might look good for 2015, but 2016 results coming next year will show the real impact of the drought in SA
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South Africa's crude oil imports from January 2010. 

We take a look at South Africa's crude oil imports from January 2010. How much are we paying, and where is it coming from.
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Unemployment rate per province and metro. Q3:2016

We take a look at the latest unemployment rate per province and metro in South Africa. And it's clear government policies are failing miserably in reducing the unemployment rate in South Africa

South African Reserve Bank inflation forecasting and the repo rate..

We take a look at South African Reserve Bank (SARB) inflation forecasting and the impact their forecasts has on the Repo Rate and ultimately interest rates.

South Africa's cumulative trade with 6 European countries for 2016

We take a look at South Africa's cumulative trade with countries such as Belgium, Germany, France, Italy , Netherlands and the UK and highlight where we have a competitive advantage and where we dont. And ask if we gaining from such advantage.

South Africa's Real Effective Exchange Rate

We take a look at South Africa's real effective exchange rate and what is says about South Africa's Rand valuation against the dollar. The Big Mac Index features too,

South Africa's retail trade sales

We take a look at South Africa's retail trade sales, which dealer type contributes the most to total sales, and how South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy is unnecessarily hurting retailers and SA's economy.

Our very random rant about South African politics and it's economy

This rant includes the names of President Zuma, the Guptas, Brian Molefe, Dudu Myeni, weekend special David Des Van Rooyen and many more

Updated Valuation on Mr Price (14 November 2016)

We take a look at Mr Price's latest financial results and come to the conclusion that the market sell off in the share has been over done. At it's current price it offers good value.

South Africa's trade with the USA (Pre-Trump Era)

We take a look at South Africa's trade with the USA over the years before the Trump era. No matter how bad trade between the USA and South Africa gets under Trump, it cant get worse than trade with China.

Electricity supplied vs GDP

We take a look at electricity produced in South Africa vs South Africa's economic growth rate. Can we thank ESKOM for no loadshedding or are South Africans (households and businesses) just more energy efficient?

How good is the South African Reserve Bank with forecasting?

We take a look at how good the South African Reserve Bank is with forecasting and wonder if poor forecasting might be leading to unnecessary interest rate hikes?

Emigrating South Africans. Where they heading and how many are leaving?

We take a look at where people staying in South Africa is heading once they decide to leave South African shores. And its clear more and more are leaving. And the exchange rate is getting worse and worse. Shows an overall decline in sentiment towards the "Rainbow" nation.

Investigating South African households total net wealth

We take a look at the size of South Africa's pension funds and investigate South African households net wealth.

The average South African

We build a profile of the average South African. Where would he/she stay, work, how much is his/her salary etc. We take a look.

SA clothing retailers struggling.. So are their share prices

We take a look at struggling retailers and how Mr Market has punished their share prices over the last couple of months.

What the South African government could have bought with R5billion SAA bailout money

We take a look at what the South African government could have done with the R5billion SAA bailout it has granted the airline

South Africa's tax revenue sources.

We take a look at where the South African government's money comes from. And we recommend where they should stop milking and where they should milk more.

Stagnation, StagFlation or economic sweet spot?

We take a look at where South Africa's economy has been finding itself in recent years. Are we seeing stagnation, stagflation or we in our economic sweet spot? Read it here

Updated Valuation on Famous Brands

We feel Famous Brands' share price is a little rich at it's current point

Valuation on Harley-Davidson (HOG)

We value Harley-Davidson (HOG) and find that it's share price has space to roar, just like their motor-cycle engines
MTN subscriber numbers update
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We take a look at MTN's subscriber numbers announced today. And show the numbers on an interactive pie chart

Inflation Clock

We take a look at South Africa's inflation rate in a new and interesting way. And discuss why SARB want's to keep inflation between 3% to 6%
Inflation Heat Map. Updated with September 20106 data
Updated Valuation on JSE (JSE)
Updated Valuation on Value Logistics (VLE)

Coronation now owns 60% of Ascension Properties (AIA)

SA's contribution and integration in international shipping

We take a look at the number of containers processed at South African ports compared to the rest of the world. And the level of integration of South Africa in shipping networks.

Springboks vs All Blacks (we show a few numbers)

We take a look at the Springboks performance against the All Blacks since 2000. Not pretty reading for South Africans

How well banked is South Africa compared to other countries?

We take a look at a few interesting numbers with regards to access to banking services of South African and compare it to few other countries

An alternative look at South Africa's 3 biggest provinces (in economic terms)

We strive to provide new ways to present information and this is one of them. We take a look at a variety of variables and compare them across South Africa's 3 biggest provinces (in terms of economic size).

Blue Label Telecoms (BLU) to buy 45% of Cell C

We take a look at Blue Label Telecoms announcement that they will be buying 45% of Cell C. Hopefully a better bet than sponsoring the Springboks

Concentration of Trade

We take a look at South Africa's concentration of trade. Both for Imports and Exports. Read more here

New passenger vehicle sales in prolonged recession

We take a look at the prolonged decline in the underlying trend of new vehicle sales. 

Coronation (CML) now owns 15% of Stor-Age (SSS)

Does Coronation see value in Stor-Age or are they victims of their own success and just investing money in sectors and shares as they are mandated to do so by the funds they manage, regardless of whether it offers value or not?

South Africa's Gross Fixed Capital Formation per industry

We take a look at the gross fixed capital formation per industry over time and highlight those that are showing signs of struggle and those that are heavily investing in fixed assets in South Africa

SA consumer spending per durability type

We take a look at South African consumer spending per durability type. Does SA consumers spend more on durable goods, semi-durable goods, non-durable goods or services? Click here to find out.

Capitec Bank Valuation

We take a look at Capitec Bank's half year results (for end August 2016) and value their shares based on the latest set of financial results

South Africa's provincial government spending on employees

We take a look at the compensation of employees per province, and express the results in a few different ways to show how changing the way it is expressed impacts on the conclusions drawn from the same data set.

The Capital Group Companies Inc. buys bigger stake in MTN

Offshore firm that has assets under management that dwarfs the likes of Coronation now owns 5.13% of down on it's luck MTN.

Taylors Rule revisited. Is SARB's interest rate policy still on track?

We take a look at what Taylor's Rule is suggesting South Africa's interest rate should be at, and whether the South African Reserve Bank monetary policy setting is  close to the mark Taylor's Rule is suggesting (updated to Q3:2016)

Stock Valuation on Rolfes (RLF)

We take a look at Rolfes's latest financial results. Well worth a punt for those investors who like a bit of risk and want exposure to the chemicals sector other than via Sasol or Omnia

Stock Valuation on SASOL (SOL)

We take a look at Sasol's latest set of financial results and ask whether SOL should continue with their shale gas projects? Are they throwing good money after bad money? Losses at their shale gas project in Canada is more than most mid cap's listed on the JSE's market capital.

Consumer Spending patterns over time

We take a look at South Africa's consumer spending patterns over time. An update on our previous page looking at spending patterns per income group in South Africa

Strong Rand leads to better trade balances

We show once again that a strong Rand is good for South Africa's trade balances even if economic theory suggests this is the opposite and that a weak exchange rate leads to better trade balances.

Battle of 3 biggest economies in Africa 

We take a look at Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa's economic performance over recent years. Makes for good reading if you Egyptian, not so much if you South African.

South Africa's Phillips Curve

Is there an inverse relationship between South Africa's unemployment rate and inflation rate as the Phillips curve suggests? Or do we buck the trend?

African countries economic growth rates over time

We take a look at African countries economic growth rate and compare them to one another and compare different regions such as ECOWAS and SACU against one another to see who comes out on top.

South Africa's tax system and structure

We dig into South Africa's tax statistics and find a very small portion of South Africa's population is paying a MASSIVE chunck of South Africa's personal income tax (and overall tax bill).

Top 20 biggest shares slug it out to see who's the biggest of them all

We take a look at the current list of Top 20 biggest shares listed on the JSE (in terms of market cap), and compare their ranking now to their ranking 12months ago.

Interconnected economy

We take a look at the intricate links in the economy and show how seemingly unconnected sectors link up with one another.

Tree Map of Retailing companies vs Retailers of Food and Staples.

Woolworths and Shoprite standing head and shoulders above the rest of the retailers. Shoprite dwarfing all others.

Economic performance per SA president

We take a look at the poor performance of president Jacob Zuma compared to president Thabo Mbeki, and possible consequences of "factionalism" within the ruling ANC

Agriculture a big contributor to African economies.

We take a look at the contribution the agriculture sector makes to various economies around the world, and highlight the fact that African economies are still very reliant on the agriculture sector and it shows how under developed these economies still are.

Imports and Exports as % of GDP on world map

We take a look at the size of various countries Imports and Exports as percentage of their economy. And highlight a few interesting cases. Click on the heading or map to go to the article

South Africa's population per province (up to 2016)

We plot and track South Africa's population per province from 2001 to 2016 based on the latest mid year estimates as published by Statistics South Africa.

Unemployment rate per Metro in South Africa

We take a look at the unemployment rate of various metropolitan areas in South Africa. While some metros are doing better than others, the overall unemployment rate of South Africa remains stubbornly high

Value of listed companies per country

We take a look at the value of listed companies per country for 2015. And in terms of countries that reported these values, South Africa does not stack up to badly.

State of South Africa's economy

We take a look at various economic variables and assess the state of the South African economy. And from the looks of it it seems like it is just aimlessly drifting around.

Unpacking the CPI figure

We dig a little deeper into the often quoted but not understood inflation figure

EU Trade with SA. And with Brexit creators the UK

We take a look at the contribution of the EU to South Africa's total trade, with a particular focus on the UK.

Which products are driving inflation in various provinces?

We take a look at the various groupings in the inflation basket and their growth rates across various provinces in South Africa.

Weak Rand not leading to additional import inflation. SARB take note.

We take a look at why a weak Rand is not leading to greater import inflation as measured by Import Unit Value Indices

ESKOM vs Other Power Producers

We take a look at the amount of kilowatts hours produced by ESKOM and Other power producers since January 2000.

South Africa's 10 biggest Imports and Exports

We take a look at South Africa's 10 biggest Import and Exports for March 2016

Foreign investors selling SA shares and buying bonds instead

We take a look at the net sales/purchases of shares and bonds by foreign investors

South Africa's manufacturing utilisation and under-utilisation

We take a look at South Africa's manufacturing utilisation and under-utilisation, and what reasons are supplied for not utilising manufacturing capacity fully.

South Africa's crude oil imports. Detailed analysis

We take a detailed look at South Africa's crude oil imports. How much are we importing, how much are we paying for it, and where is it coming from.

Import inflation for grain milling products vs bread and cereals CPI

We take a look at the import prices for grain and milling products and compare it to bread and cereals inflation.

Inflation Heat Map

Visit our interactive map showing how the level of inflation per province has changed from January 2014 to March 2016.

BRICS countries economic growth compared

We compare BRICS countries economic growth since 2011 to certain develop economies.

Firms listed on JSE raising a lot of share capital

Listed firms capital raising hit a all time high in 2015. We take a look

Employment: Men vs Woman. Seems like men still dominate

We take a look at the ratio between men and woman in terms of employment (and break it down per industry) and find that men still dominate employment in most industries.

Travel time for commuters

We take a look at the amount of time it takes employees to get to work, across all South Africa's provinces

Short vs Long Term bond yields. What is saying about inflation?

We take a look at our short and long term bond yields and what these yields are saying about inflation expectations and are they a precursor to what is to come in the economy?

Land Transport telling a sad story about South Africa's current economic state

We take a look at the various types of Freight being transported around South Africa

What is household spending on transport saying about SA's economy?

We take a look at the depressing story household spending on transport is telling about South Africa's economy and it's pretty bleak future

South Africa's Population Density Map

We take a look at South Africa's population density per province from 2002 to 2015, 

The long hard struggle to get a job in South Africa

We take a look at the long hard struggle South Africans are facing to get a job. With a large percentage of people looking for employment for over 5 years.

Economics

Size of South Africa's Informal Economy

We take a look at how big South Africa's informal economy is

South Africa's Economic History

We take a look at the economic performance of South Africa, per president and finance minister since the dawn of democracy

South Africa's Monetary Fiscal Policy Mix

We take a look at how coordinated or uncoordinated South Africa's monetary and fiscal policies are and its impact on South Africa's economic growth

South Africa's GDP Animation

We developed an interactive animated pie chart showing how the importance of sectors in South Africa's economy changed over time

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