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Ever wondered if we as South Africa are mining more or less gold or coal than what we did years ago? We will take a look at the numbers published by Statistics South Africa that tracks the volumes of commodities mined each month. From this we will be able to determine if we are mining more gold or coal than what we did in 2010 for example. We will also highlight a concerning long term trend.
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Gold and Coal mining volumes in South Africa
The line chart below shows the index levels for mining production for both coal and gold. The volume of coal and gold mined in January 2010 has been index to 100. So a index number above 100 shows volumes mined is higher than what it was in January 2010 and index levels below 100 shows volumes mined decreased when compared to January 2010
So from the line chart above it is clear that mining production has not really increased since January 2010. In fact the volumes for the gold mining industry has declined drastically since January 2010. As at January 2019, volumes mined in the gold mining industry has declined by 37.6%. While the volumes of coal mined has declined by 6.7% since the start of January 2010. Not a good story to tell for South Africa's mining industry in general when two of its biggest commodities it has at its disposal has not shown any growth in volumes mined over the last 9 years.
While demand for commodities declined during 2009-2010 with the financial crises it has increased gradually since, however the output from South African mines for gold and coal has not increased with the recovery in international demand for commodities. A very unstable power grid supplied by ESKOM, demanding labour unions with constant wage demands well above inflation, continued increases in input costs for mines all affecting margins and viability of mines operating in South Africa.
Question is will the gold mining industry index levels in the next 9 years tend towards below 50? Or drop even more than that and head towards zero? We really do think the gold mining industry in South Africa is dying a slow painful death and more and more companies will start closing down its operations sending thousands of gold miners to the unemployment line. And if they are not reskilled they might continue to mine for gold but as illegal miners.
While demand for commodities declined during 2009-2010 with the financial crises it has increased gradually since, however the output from South African mines for gold and coal has not increased with the recovery in international demand for commodities. A very unstable power grid supplied by ESKOM, demanding labour unions with constant wage demands well above inflation, continued increases in input costs for mines all affecting margins and viability of mines operating in South Africa.
Question is will the gold mining industry index levels in the next 9 years tend towards below 50? Or drop even more than that and head towards zero? We really do think the gold mining industry in South Africa is dying a slow painful death and more and more companies will start closing down its operations sending thousands of gold miners to the unemployment line. And if they are not reskilled they might continue to mine for gold but as illegal miners.