South African Market Insights
  • Home
  • Blog
    • Blog-5Jun2018
    • Blog-18May2018
    • Blog-16May2018
    • Blog-3May2018
    • Blog-2May2018
    • Blog-30Apr2018
    • Blog-26Apr2018
    • Blog-24Apr2018
    • Blog-18Apr2018
    • Blog-17Apr2018
    • Blog-16Apr2018
    • Blog-3Apr2018
    • Blog-22Mar2018
    • Blog-20Mar2018
    • Blog-19Mar2018
    • Blog-23Oct2017
    • Blog-20Oct2017
    • Blog-11Oct2017
    • Blog-10Oct2017
    • Blog-6Oct2017
    • Blog-3Oct2017
    • Blog-2Oct2017
  • Economics
    • Rand Dollar Exchange Rate
    • South Africa's GDP
    • South Africa's Unemployment
    • SA by numbers
    • Economic Progress Index
    • Taylors Rule
    • South Africa's Formal Business Sector
    • South-Africa's-Fiscal-Policy
    • SA EU Trade Data
    • Inflation Heat Map
    • Population Density Map
    • Labour Market Dynamics
    • Estimating the Size of the Informal Economy
    • SA Consumer Spending Patterns
    • South Africa's Monetary Fiscal Policy Mix
    • GDP Animations >
      • SouthAfrica
      • WesternCape
      • EasternCape
      • NorthernCape
      • FreeState
      • KwaZuluNatal
      • NorthWest
      • Gauteng
      • Mpumalanga
      • Limpopo
    • South Africa's Economic Structure
    • South Africa's Economic History
    • South Africa's Trade Data Page
    • South Africa's Food and Beverages Sector
    • Financial Well-being of South African Companies_2015
    • SA vs the World
    • Budget Day Page (24 Feb 2016)
  • Stock in Focus
    • JSE ALSI Chart
    • Sector Comparison Page
    • JSE-Calendar-Tracker-2019
    • Adcorp (ADR)
    • Amazon (AMZN)
    • Apple (AAPL)
    • Ascendis (ASC)
    • AVI (AVI)
    • Bidvest (BVT)
    • Blue Label Telecoms (BLU)
    • Bowler Metcalf (BCF)
    • Capitec (CPI)
    • City Lodge Hotel Group
    • Clicks Group (CLS)
    • Coronation (CML)
    • Curro Holdings (COH)
    • Discovery (DSY)
    • Distell (DST)
    • EOH (EOH)
    • Famous Brands (FBR)
    • Ferrari (RACE)
    • FirstRand Group (FSR)
    • Grindrod (GND)
    • GrowthPoint (GRT)
    • Holdsport (HSP)
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG)
    • Hyprop (HYP)
    • Hyprop (HYP)_1Jun2016
    • Investec Property Fund (IPF)
    • JSE (JSE)
    • Massmart (MSM)
    • MediClinic (MEI)
    • MTN (MTN)
    • MTN (MTN)_May2016
    • Mr Price Group (MRP)
    • Mr Price Group (MRP)_8APR2016
    • Nedbank (NED)
    • OneLogix (OLG)
    • Peregrine Holdings (PGR)
    • Pick 'n Pay Stores (PIK)
    • Pioneer Foods (PFG)
    • PSG Group (PSG)
    • Quantum Foods (QFH)
    • RCL Foods (RCL)
    • Remgro (REM)
    • Richemont (CFR)
    • RMB Holdings (RMH)
    • Rolfes (RLF)
    • Sanlam (SLM)
    • Sasol (SOL)
    • Sasol (SOL)_18sep2016
    • Santova (SNV)
    • Spar Group (SPP)
    • Shoprite Holdings (SHP)
    • Spur Corporation (SUR)_7Sep2017
    • Standard Bank (SBK)
    • Steinhoff International Holdings (SNH)
    • Stor-Age (SSS)
    • Super Group (SPG)
    • Taste Holdings (TAS)_30May2016
    • The Foshini Group (TFG)
    • Value Logistics (VLE)
    • Vodacom (VOD)
    • Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon (WBO)
    • Woolworths (WHL)
    • Woolworths (WHL)_24Aug2017
    • Zeder (ZED)
  • Online Calculators
    • Rand Petrol Price Estimator
    • Share Valuation
    • Financial Ratios Calculator
    • GDP Growth Estimator
    • Future Value of Investment Calculator
    • Loan repayment calculator
  • Contact
  • About
  • Search

< What the Big Mac index says about the value of the rand
Economics Main Page >

South Africa's economy and the Baltic Dry Shipping index
​​​
​Date: 30 July 2018
Category: Economics

Related Topics

We take a look at South Africa's economic growth rate and compare it to the growth in the Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI), which is used as a proxy for measuring dry freight shipped across the globe. The reason we are looking at this index and South Africa's economic growth is the fact that South Africa is a very open economy, with imports and exports amounting to roughly 60% of South Africa's total GDP. Just showing how dependent South Africa's economy is on international trade. And if the Baltic shipping index is to slow down, it might indicate less international trade and slow downs in international economies and could therefore be a leading indicator of future economic activity in South Africa
Picture
  • SA monetary fiscal policy mix
  • ​SA's trade data page

South Africa's economy vs Baltic Dry Shipping Index

The line chart below shows South Africa's GDP on the right axis and black line compared to the Baltic Dry Shipping index on the left axis and light blue line. The data is lagged by two quarters. Basically what we are saying is it takes two quarters for the movements in the Baltic Dry Shipping index to affect the economy of South Africa.
chart created with amCharts | amCharts
From the graphic it is clear that the trends in the Baltic Dry Shipping index and that of South Afriac's economy is very similar, when the Baltic dry shipping index is lagged by two quarters. The correlation between the two time series is 0.549, or 54.9%. One this means is that 54.9% of the movements in the one time series can be explained by the movements in the other time series. This shows that there is a relatively strong relationship between the two.

Again this is not unexpected as the BDI is a proxy for dry bulk shipping and dry bulk is mostly made up of raw materials used as inputs in the production of goods, with South Africa being a large exporter of raw materials used in production and consumption such as coal and iron ore  it is no real surprise that the movements of the index and the movements in South Africa's economy is very similar, considering trade makes up such a large part of South Africa's economy.

The graphic below shows the percentage trade (both imports and exports combined) makes up of South Africa's total economy over time.

chart created with amCharts | amCharts
​
The line graph above shows that South Africa's trade makes up a massive chunk of its overall economy, and that over time the dependence has started to increase, as the value of total trade was sitting at roughly 54% of South Africa's GDP, in the latest quarter it is basically sitting at 60% of South Africa's GDP.  And as we mentioned in the past, the dependence on foreign trade by South Africa could lead to future economic problems, should supply of goods from other countries dry up, or suppliers decide to push up prices of goods shipped to South Africa as they know South Africa either cant produce the items or cannot live without them. It is a pretty exposed position to be in, and one we are hoping the South African government is trying to address, by setting policies to boost local production and consumption of goods and services instead of the the continued dependence on international trade.

Newsletter Subscription

    Please enter your email address below to subscribe to our newsletter. It will be ad hoc newsletters and we wont bombard your email inbox with emails. We will NEVER supply your contact details to any third party.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Additional content

Related Topics

  • SA monetary fiscal policy mix
  • ​SA's trade data page​


​Homepage

Economics Page
Stock in Focus Page


​About


Contact Us

Copyright © 2015
  • Home
  • Blog
    • Blog-5Jun2018
    • Blog-18May2018
    • Blog-16May2018
    • Blog-3May2018
    • Blog-2May2018
    • Blog-30Apr2018
    • Blog-26Apr2018
    • Blog-24Apr2018
    • Blog-18Apr2018
    • Blog-17Apr2018
    • Blog-16Apr2018
    • Blog-3Apr2018
    • Blog-22Mar2018
    • Blog-20Mar2018
    • Blog-19Mar2018
    • Blog-23Oct2017
    • Blog-20Oct2017
    • Blog-11Oct2017
    • Blog-10Oct2017
    • Blog-6Oct2017
    • Blog-3Oct2017
    • Blog-2Oct2017
  • Economics
    • Rand Dollar Exchange Rate
    • South Africa's GDP
    • South Africa's Unemployment
    • SA by numbers
    • Economic Progress Index
    • Taylors Rule
    • South Africa's Formal Business Sector
    • South-Africa's-Fiscal-Policy
    • SA EU Trade Data
    • Inflation Heat Map
    • Population Density Map
    • Labour Market Dynamics
    • Estimating the Size of the Informal Economy
    • SA Consumer Spending Patterns
    • South Africa's Monetary Fiscal Policy Mix
    • GDP Animations >
      • SouthAfrica
      • WesternCape
      • EasternCape
      • NorthernCape
      • FreeState
      • KwaZuluNatal
      • NorthWest
      • Gauteng
      • Mpumalanga
      • Limpopo
    • South Africa's Economic Structure
    • South Africa's Economic History
    • South Africa's Trade Data Page
    • South Africa's Food and Beverages Sector
    • Financial Well-being of South African Companies_2015
    • SA vs the World
    • Budget Day Page (24 Feb 2016)
  • Stock in Focus
    • JSE ALSI Chart
    • Sector Comparison Page
    • JSE-Calendar-Tracker-2019
    • Adcorp (ADR)
    • Amazon (AMZN)
    • Apple (AAPL)
    • Ascendis (ASC)
    • AVI (AVI)
    • Bidvest (BVT)
    • Blue Label Telecoms (BLU)
    • Bowler Metcalf (BCF)
    • Capitec (CPI)
    • City Lodge Hotel Group
    • Clicks Group (CLS)
    • Coronation (CML)
    • Curro Holdings (COH)
    • Discovery (DSY)
    • Distell (DST)
    • EOH (EOH)
    • Famous Brands (FBR)
    • Ferrari (RACE)
    • FirstRand Group (FSR)
    • Grindrod (GND)
    • GrowthPoint (GRT)
    • Holdsport (HSP)
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG)
    • Hyprop (HYP)
    • Hyprop (HYP)_1Jun2016
    • Investec Property Fund (IPF)
    • JSE (JSE)
    • Massmart (MSM)
    • MediClinic (MEI)
    • MTN (MTN)
    • MTN (MTN)_May2016
    • Mr Price Group (MRP)
    • Mr Price Group (MRP)_8APR2016
    • Nedbank (NED)
    • OneLogix (OLG)
    • Peregrine Holdings (PGR)
    • Pick 'n Pay Stores (PIK)
    • Pioneer Foods (PFG)
    • PSG Group (PSG)
    • Quantum Foods (QFH)
    • RCL Foods (RCL)
    • Remgro (REM)
    • Richemont (CFR)
    • RMB Holdings (RMH)
    • Rolfes (RLF)
    • Sanlam (SLM)
    • Sasol (SOL)
    • Sasol (SOL)_18sep2016
    • Santova (SNV)
    • Spar Group (SPP)
    • Shoprite Holdings (SHP)
    • Spur Corporation (SUR)_7Sep2017
    • Standard Bank (SBK)
    • Steinhoff International Holdings (SNH)
    • Stor-Age (SSS)
    • Super Group (SPG)
    • Taste Holdings (TAS)_30May2016
    • The Foshini Group (TFG)
    • Value Logistics (VLE)
    • Vodacom (VOD)
    • Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon (WBO)
    • Woolworths (WHL)
    • Woolworths (WHL)_24Aug2017
    • Zeder (ZED)
  • Online Calculators
    • Rand Petrol Price Estimator
    • Share Valuation
    • Financial Ratios Calculator
    • GDP Growth Estimator
    • Future Value of Investment Calculator
    • Loan repayment calculator
  • Contact
  • About
  • Search