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In our continued efforts to give our readers a broad number of views, opinions and information, we continue to provide PSG's daily market updates and add our own daily inputs in at the end.
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Short summary of PSG's market commentary for 4 November 2019
South Africa
The JSE ended the week on a high as it closed in the green and recorded its best weekly gains in three weeks. Experts believe the Moody’s report, changing SA’s outlook to negative, will impact the bourse today. At the closing bell, the All Share Index had gained 0.40%.
United States
US equities extended gains on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected US employment data for October and China’s positive manufacturing data. At 17h50, the Dow Jones was 0.90% higher.
Europe
The upbeat manufacturing reports from China helped lift European markets on Friday, calming investor nerves over another possible delay between the US and China reaching a tariff deal. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.67%.
Hong Kong
Unexpectedly strong factory data from mainland China boosted Asian indices on Friday. The Hang Seng Index reached its highest level in six weeks and stood 0.72% in the green at the close of trade.
Japan
New doubts around a possible US-China trade deal boosted the safe-haven yen on Friday, which weighed heavily on exports and cyclical shares and pulled Japan’s benchmark index down. The Nikkei closed down 0.33%.
Rand
Despite losing almost 3% in the week and crucial ground to the greenback on Wednesday after Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s midterm budget speech, the rand held firm on Friday ahead of the Moody’s ratings report. At 17h50, a dollar traded at R15.02.
Precious metals
Gold prices slowed on Friday due to investors chasing in some of the earlier session’s gains on the back of strong Chinese factory data released. At 17h50, gold traded at $1 510.53 per ounce.
Oil
Although oil prices rose about 3.50% on Friday thanks to positive economic data from both China and the US, it still recorded a 0.40% drop for the week. A barrel of Brent crude traded at $61.02 at 17h50
The JSE ended the week on a high as it closed in the green and recorded its best weekly gains in three weeks. Experts believe the Moody’s report, changing SA’s outlook to negative, will impact the bourse today. At the closing bell, the All Share Index had gained 0.40%.
United States
US equities extended gains on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected US employment data for October and China’s positive manufacturing data. At 17h50, the Dow Jones was 0.90% higher.
Europe
The upbeat manufacturing reports from China helped lift European markets on Friday, calming investor nerves over another possible delay between the US and China reaching a tariff deal. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.67%.
Hong Kong
Unexpectedly strong factory data from mainland China boosted Asian indices on Friday. The Hang Seng Index reached its highest level in six weeks and stood 0.72% in the green at the close of trade.
Japan
New doubts around a possible US-China trade deal boosted the safe-haven yen on Friday, which weighed heavily on exports and cyclical shares and pulled Japan’s benchmark index down. The Nikkei closed down 0.33%.
Rand
Despite losing almost 3% in the week and crucial ground to the greenback on Wednesday after Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s midterm budget speech, the rand held firm on Friday ahead of the Moody’s ratings report. At 17h50, a dollar traded at R15.02.
Precious metals
Gold prices slowed on Friday due to investors chasing in some of the earlier session’s gains on the back of strong Chinese factory data released. At 17h50, gold traded at $1 510.53 per ounce.
Oil
Although oil prices rose about 3.50% on Friday thanks to positive economic data from both China and the US, it still recorded a 0.40% drop for the week. A barrel of Brent crude traded at $61.02 at 17h50
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Our daily update
South Africa's single biggest economic problem remains the extremely high and increasing unemployment rate which is sitting at levels above 29% right now. The extract below was obtained from Statistics South Africa
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1% in Q3 of 2019. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released by Statistics South Africa, this is the highest unemployment rate since Stats SA started measuring unemployment using the QLFS in 2008.
Between Q2: 2019 and Q3: 2019, the number of employed persons increased in four of the ten industries, with the largest increase recorded in the Community and social services industry (56 000), followed by Agriculture and Mining with 38 000 each and Private households (35 000). Declines in employment were recorded in the Manufacturing (30 000), Construction (24 000), Trade (21 000) and Utilities (18 000) industries.
Compared to the same period last year, a net decline of 5 000 in total employment was largely due to decreases in the number of people employed in Construction (163 000), Utilities (23 000) and Transport (21 000) in Q3: 2019 and employment gains in Trade (103 000) and Manufacturing (41 000) during the same period.
Employment increased in five of the ten occupations in Q3: 2019 compared to the previous quarter. The largest increase was observed in Professional occupations (up by 122 000), followed by those in Sales and services (up by 89 000) and Elementary (up by 38 000) occupations. Manager occupations (92 000) recorded the largest employment losses, followed by Craft and related trade (45 000), Plant and machine operator (43 000) and Technician (41 000) occupations, while Clerical occupations recorded the lowest decrease of 12 000 jobs.
The largest employment increase was observed in the formal sector (43 000), followed by the Agriculture and Private household sectors with 38 000 and 35 000, respectively. Employment in the informal sector, on the other hand, declined by 53 000 in Q3: 2019 compared to Q2: 2019.
According to the survey, the number of discouraged work-seekers increased by 44 000 while the number of people who were not economically active for reasons other than discouragement decreased by 35 000 between the second and the third quarters of 2019, resulting in a net increase of 9 000 in the not economically active population.
Compared to a year ago, total employment decreased by 5 000, the number of unemployed persons increased by 8,4% (524 000), and the number of persons who were not economically active increased by 0,5% (78 000).
The number of employed persons increased by 62 000 to 16,4 million in Q3: 2019, with the number of unemployed persons also showing an increase of 78 000 to 6,7 million compared to Q2: 2019, resulting in an increase of 141 000 (up by 0,6%) in the number of people in the labour force. The working-age population (15–64 years) in Q3: 2019 was 38,6 million.
Year-on-year changes show that losses in employment were mainly driven by Craft and related trade occupations (106 000), followed by Elementary (55 000), Plant and machine operator (39 000) and Technician (4 000) occupations. Sales and services (124 000), Domestic worker (43 000), Professional (13 000), Clerk and Skilled agriculture (7 000 each) and Manager (5 000) occupations recorded gains in employment in Q3: 2019 compared to Q3: 2018.
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1% in Q3 of 2019. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released by Statistics South Africa, this is the highest unemployment rate since Stats SA started measuring unemployment using the QLFS in 2008.
Between Q2: 2019 and Q3: 2019, the number of employed persons increased in four of the ten industries, with the largest increase recorded in the Community and social services industry (56 000), followed by Agriculture and Mining with 38 000 each and Private households (35 000). Declines in employment were recorded in the Manufacturing (30 000), Construction (24 000), Trade (21 000) and Utilities (18 000) industries.
Compared to the same period last year, a net decline of 5 000 in total employment was largely due to decreases in the number of people employed in Construction (163 000), Utilities (23 000) and Transport (21 000) in Q3: 2019 and employment gains in Trade (103 000) and Manufacturing (41 000) during the same period.
Employment increased in five of the ten occupations in Q3: 2019 compared to the previous quarter. The largest increase was observed in Professional occupations (up by 122 000), followed by those in Sales and services (up by 89 000) and Elementary (up by 38 000) occupations. Manager occupations (92 000) recorded the largest employment losses, followed by Craft and related trade (45 000), Plant and machine operator (43 000) and Technician (41 000) occupations, while Clerical occupations recorded the lowest decrease of 12 000 jobs.
The largest employment increase was observed in the formal sector (43 000), followed by the Agriculture and Private household sectors with 38 000 and 35 000, respectively. Employment in the informal sector, on the other hand, declined by 53 000 in Q3: 2019 compared to Q2: 2019.
According to the survey, the number of discouraged work-seekers increased by 44 000 while the number of people who were not economically active for reasons other than discouragement decreased by 35 000 between the second and the third quarters of 2019, resulting in a net increase of 9 000 in the not economically active population.
Compared to a year ago, total employment decreased by 5 000, the number of unemployed persons increased by 8,4% (524 000), and the number of persons who were not economically active increased by 0,5% (78 000).
The number of employed persons increased by 62 000 to 16,4 million in Q3: 2019, with the number of unemployed persons also showing an increase of 78 000 to 6,7 million compared to Q2: 2019, resulting in an increase of 141 000 (up by 0,6%) in the number of people in the labour force. The working-age population (15–64 years) in Q3: 2019 was 38,6 million.
Year-on-year changes show that losses in employment were mainly driven by Craft and related trade occupations (106 000), followed by Elementary (55 000), Plant and machine operator (39 000) and Technician (4 000) occupations. Sales and services (124 000), Domestic worker (43 000), Professional (13 000), Clerk and Skilled agriculture (7 000 each) and Manager (5 000) occupations recorded gains in employment in Q3: 2019 compared to Q3: 2018.
Our JSE All Share index daily performance calendar
Visit our JSE Calendar tracker page for a expanded version of the calendar below
The graphic below provides the daily returns of the JSE All Share Index (J203) on a calendar chart. Provides a great overview of the All share index over the course of the month. It will be updated daily with our daily investment update as received from PSG.
So the month of October 2019 saw the JSE All Share Index end in the green. And the first trading day of November 2019 saw the JSE edge up slightly last week Friday. Can the momentum continue and the "Christmas rally" carry the markets higher in the closing months of 2019?
For more on daily market movements see our 2019 Calendar tracker.
But we as South African investors are losing out in Dollar terms. Largely due to continued Rand weakness not only over the short term but over the last couple of years. We continue to advise investors to take money out of South Africa and invest it offshore. Looking for ideas for investments to make? Go read this article
For more on daily market movements see our 2019 Calendar tracker.
But we as South African investors are losing out in Dollar terms. Largely due to continued Rand weakness not only over the short term but over the last couple of years. We continue to advise investors to take money out of South Africa and invest it offshore. Looking for ideas for investments to make? Go read this article