Brenthurst/Biznews Quarterly EPI
(Last updated: 24 November 2017)
This is the testing page for the proposed Brenthurst/Biznews Economic Progress Index.

*Please note all of this is based on preliminary indices and values at this point in time and does not reflect the final series 
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Lead Sponsor of the index:

Website: ​http://www.bwm.co.za/

Secondary Sponder of the index

Website: www.biznews.com

Current Variables Included in draft version

  • ​Monthly Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate (obtained from South African Reserve Bank)
  • Monthly Retail Trade Sales (as obtained from Statistics South Africa)
  • Monthly Wholesale Trade Sales  (as obtained from Statistics South Africa)
  • Monthly Motor Trade Sales (as obtained from Statistics South Africa)
  • Monthly Manufacturing (number of units produced) (as obtained from Statistics South Africa)
  • Monthly Electricity generated and available for distribution (as obtained from Statistics South Africa)
  • Monthly Imports/Exports as published by SARS
  •  Population (Annually) – Using Statistics South Africa mid year estimates
  • GDP (Quarterly) – Quarterly GDP data as published by Statistics South Africa
  • Current Account Surplus/Deficit (Quarterly)
  • National government budget surplus/deficit
  • Unemployment Rate (Quarterly)

So why the above variables?

We feel this provides the broadest possible coverage of South Africa's economic environment, covering a wide variety of sectors (consumers, retailers and wholesalers, manufacturers, government as well as the rest of the world.

All variables are given an equal weight in order to ensure the overall index results are not skewed by one or two variables which shows significant movements during a quarter. 

All the variables are indexed to March 2010=100. By indexing all the variables it makes it possible to compare and combined movements in the exchange rate, to the changes in South Africa's population for example. Or to combined and compare values in Millions of Rand to values in Billions. Indexing makes all the different variables equal at a given point in time selected which assists in developing an index that is made up by a wide variety of variables that are reported in various different values and formats. 

The line chart below shows the overall index movement per quarter as well as a four quarters rolling average of the EPI (smoothes out the volatile index and provides better guide as to the underlying trend).
chart created with amCharts | amCharts
The graphic below shows the contribution of the various variables to the latest quarter's EPI. In addition it compares it the same quarter of the previous year. The EPI for 3rd quarter 2017 ending in September declined 1.45% (compared to a 0.27% decline for the same period of the previous year). The big contributors the declining EPI for the 3rd quarter of 2017 is the negative impact of a large decline in wholesale sales 

*Please note all of this is based on preliminary indices and values at this point in time and does not reflect the final series 
chart created with amCharts | amCharts
The bar chart below shows the year on year growth  rate of the EPI. And as can be seen it has been overwhelmingly negative for the last number of years, and has only picked up moderately over the last few quarters, while South Africa's GDP growth rate has remained largely positive (although growth has been slowing), it shows the disparity between what we believe signifies real economic progress made compared to South Africa's economic growth rate. Economic growth is only a small part of measuring  the economic health and economic progress made by a country. And while South Africa's economic growth has been positive for quarters since 2010, actual economic progress made in South Africa has been declining for years.
chart created with amCharts | amCharts

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