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< Blog 5 June 2016
Blog 7 June 2016 >

The cost of the latest petrol price increase. Just how much does a fuel price increase cost South Africa?

Category: Fuel prices and crude oil
Date: 6 June 2016

Related Topics

In today's blog we look to answer the following question. How much more will it cost South African's (consumers, businesses) to fill up their vehicles after the latest 52c/l increase in the petrol price and 76c/l increase in diesel that came into effect recently. We will make a few rough assumptions to calculate the amount of money South Africans will have to cough up to fill up all registered vehicles in South Africa. 
  • Cost of Motor Vehicle Related Activities
  • ​SA Crude Oil imports analysis
  • Cost of crude
  • Commute Time

According to statistics published by Enatis there are roughly 10.4million registered self propelled vehicles in South Africa as at end of May 2016. The table below gives the breakdown of the number of registered self-propelled vehicles per fuel type per province. As can be seen from Table 1 below the largest concentration of vehicles is found in Gauteng. As we mentioned in our Commute Time article overcrowded roads in Gauteng is leading to long commute times for Gautengers.

Table 1: Number of registered vehicles per province

Description
GP​
KZN
WC
EC
NC
NW
MP
LP
FS
Petrol
​3 266 687
1 101 383
1 339 416
537 162
157 197
379 800
500 743
430 894
365 950
Diesel
826 181
1 101 383
​327 928
161 476
66 102
121 814
200 044
151 737
119 484
Total
4 092 868
2 202 766
1 667 344
698 638
223 299
501 614
700 787
582 631
​485 434

Now that we know how many vehicles are registered in each province and what fuel type they using, we can calcualte proportions for petrol vs diesel per province. Once that is done, in order to determine the overall increase in costs to South African's that is caused by the latest fuel price increases, we need to estimate the number of litres of petrol and or diesel it takes to fill up all these vehicles in Table 1.


Table 2 to the right shows the percentage of each vehicle type to the overall total number of registered self-propelled vehicles. We also estimate the size of each vehicle types fuel tank.

​From this we can then calculate the number of litres of fuel required to fill up all the registered vehicles per province. Once we have that, we apply the ratio of petrol vs diesel and then multiply it by the increase in this specific fuel type to get the overall cost to South Africans to fill up all registered vehicles per fuel type.

​The sum of overall costs for petrol and diesel is then the overall cost to South Africans.


Table 2:

Contribution of different vehicle types to total number of registered vehicles

Description
Percentage of Total
​Motor Vehicles: 45l 
64.96
​Mini Busses/Taxi's: 75l
2.83
​Buses: 250l
0.56
Motorcycles: 20l
3.43
LDV's and Bakkies: 45l
22.58
​Trucks: 250l
3.46
​Other & Unknown: 50l 
2.18

The overall additional cost to South Africans to fill up all registered vehicles once after the latest petrol and diesel price increases amounts to R348 804 009. And as we mentioned in one of our previous posts its likely that these vehicles would be filled up once a week. If this is the case the overall increase in costs to South Africans per month amounts to R1 395 216 037 and assuming the fuel prices remain the same for the next 12months the increased fuel prices would cost South Africans R16 742 592 450 a year more. That amounts to 0.42% of South Africa's total economy that will spent more on fuel due to the latest fuel price increases. 
Table 3 below shows the additional fuel costs per province assuming all registered vehicles are filled up once.  Gauteng paying the bulk (35.6%) of the additional costs as most vehicles are registered in Gauteng, with KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape paying 21.6% and 14.5% respectively

Table 3: Additional costs per province caused by latest fuel price increases

GP
KZN
WC
EC
NC
NW
MP
LP
FS
TOTAL
124 102 990
75 199 259
50 446 209
21 445 737
7 040 009
15 473 016
21 999 091
18 103 305
14 994 394
​348 804 009


Related Topics

  • ​Cost of Motor Vehicle Related Activities
  • ​SA Crude Oil imports analysis
  • Cost of crude
  • Commute Time


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