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< What the Big Mac index says about the value of the rand
Monetary Fiscal Policy Mix >

Woolworths (WHL) trading update not inspiring confidence

Category: Financial markets and Woolworths (WHL)
Date
: 20 November 2017 

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In today's blog we take a look at South African retail giant Woolworths's latest trading update. And the numbers (especially those in Australia does not inspire confidence for Woolworths (WHL) share holders.

We take a look at WHL share price on two interactive charts. The one shows WHL share price on a interactive candlestick chart (in which users can set the date range and the graph recalculates the return based on selected range), users can also change the colours of the chart, download the graph as an image or download the actual data used to draw the graphics. The other graphic is a line graph with vast technical analysis functions

Picture
WHL candle stick chart
  • Woolworths (WHL)
  • Pick 'n Pay (PIK)​

Trading update

So what did WHL's trading update look like? Below the SENS announcement as released by WHL:

TRADING UPDATE: 20 WEEKS ENDED 12 NOVEMBER 2017

Group sales for the first 20 weeks of the 2018 financial year increased by 2.6% (3.1% in constant currency terms) compared to the prior period. The difficult trading conditions experienced in both South Africa and Australia during the last quarter of the previous financial year have continued into
the current period.

In South Africa, Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home (previously Clothing and General Merchandise) sales increased by 0.7%, with price movement of 0.9%. Sales in comparable stores declined by 2.4%. Trade was affected by the macro environment, which negatively impacted consumer sentiment and discretionary spend. Retail space grew by a net 4.2%.

Woolworths Food sales in South Africa grew ahead of the market, up 9.3%, with price movement of 4.5% and positive volume growth. Sales in comparable stores grew by 5.3%, driven by price investment and our ongoing focus on product quality and innovation. Retail space grew by a net 8.2%.

David Jones sales declined by 5.3% and by 5.2% in comparable stores (in Australian dollar terms). Sales growth was impacted, but gross margin was protected, by the pull-forward of the end of season winter sale into late June and a reduction in promotional activity throughout the period. Key concession brands also reduced tactical campaign activity in David Jones to reduce discounting. Disruption caused by the refurbishments of the Bondi Junction Food Hall and the Elizabeth Street store, as well as from the implementation of the new inventory management system also impacted trade. Sales in the last six weeks have shown an improving trend. Retail space reduced by a net 2.2% as we continue to drive space optimisation.

Country Road Group sales increased by 8.3% in Australian dollar terms. Sales in comparable stores (which excludes Politix stores acquired in November 2016) declined by 0.4%, although market share has improved. Trading space reduced by a net 2.0% during the period (excluding Politix). We opened eight new Politix locations within David Jones stores and are seeing positive results from this initiative.

The Woolworths Financial Services debtors’ book reflected positive year-on-year growth of 4.8% at the end of October 2017, with strong growth in the credit card portfolio. The annualised impairment rate for the four months ended 31 October 2017 reduced to 5.7% from 6.4% in 2017. The Group’s interim results for the 26-week period ended 24 December 2017 are scheduled to be announced on the Stock Exchange News Service on or about 22 February 2018

Below the candlestick chart showing WHL share price for the last 4 years.

Percent change:

From the interactive chart above, it shows year to date (YTD), the WHL share price has decline by almost 22%. And the trend has been mostly negative with only a few short periods of share price gains. This constant downward trend in a share price does test the patients and nerve of investors and even though a share might offer value when it keeps declining like this it hard for investors to remain patient and invested in a stock when it performs like this.
So lets unpack the trading update provided by WHL.
Group sales (which includes all brands in South Africa and Australia) increased by a mere 2.6% (3.1% in constant currency terms). That is exceptionally low growth in sales. Well below the current level of inflation experienced in South Africa.

In South Africa the fashion, beauty and home (basically clothing and jewelry and household content items) sales only grew by 0.7% yet inflation in this category was 0.9%. With inflation higher than sales growth, it shows a net decline in sales in this category. Even more worrying is the fact that sales in comparable stores actually declined by 2.4%

Woolworths Food however came to the rescue of Woolworths in South Africa. With sales growing by 9.3% and inflation of this category at 4.5%. Sales growth was more than double the inflation rate in this category, which shows strong sales growth and possible market share increase in this sector for Woolworths compared to Spar, Pick 'n Pay, Shoprite etc.

Below a technical analysis chart of WHL share price for the last 4 years. Again the chart is highly interactive and users can adjust and edit the graph as they see fit. A further discussion on WHL's trading update follows below the chart.

 The real problem for WHL is not really in South Africa, but their operations in Australia. David Jones (their main brand in Australia) sales declined by 5.3% (and by 5.2% in comparable stores). That is a significant drop in sales. Luckily for WHL investors the Rand's performance against the AUS dollar has been rather poor, softening the blow of poor sales at David Jones, as sales reported in Rands will be boosted by weaker Rand against the Aussie dollar. For more on the Rand/Aus dollar see our Rand Dollar Exchange Rate page. However investors cannot depend on a weak Rand to soften the blow of poor sales in Australia forever. 

WHL also mentions that two of David Jones' main stores (both located in Sydney) were impacted by refurbishments of either the store or the mall they are in. Country Road which is a smaller Australian operation showed strong sales increases in Aussie dollar terms (8.3%). Sales in comparable Country Road stores declined slightly (0.4%), but WHL states that market share has increased, which tells us that the sector at large has been experiencing extremely difficult trading conditions, as a decline in comparable sales still lead to a market share increases, which says the rest of the companies in the sector had even bigger sales declines.

Woolworths will release their results towards the end of February 2018. We will do a new stock valuation on WHL as soon as their results are available. The current WHL results review and valuation can be found here.

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  • Pick 'n Pay (PIK)


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